Match report →
Southampton – Bolton Wanderers0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Southampton
1.78
Total xG
2.93
Bolton Wanderers
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Southampton | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | +0.71 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.41 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Kuryu Matsuki on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ryan Manning on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Flynn Downes not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Rúben Rodrigues on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Southampton score 3.2 goals per match at home in the league, Bolton Wanderers concede 2.2 away
- Form: Southampton won 4 of their last 5 matches, Bolton Wanderers recorded 3 wins
- Table: Southampton are 8th with 16 points from 10 matches, Bolton Wanderers are 14th with 13 points
Risks
- Away: Bolton Wanderers score 1.8 goals per match away in the league
- Rest period: Southampton with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Southampton51%
Draw26%
Bolton Wanderers23%
Double chance
Southampton or draw77%
Bolton Wanderers or draw49%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bolton Wanderers: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Southampton 4-2-3-1 · Bolton Wanderers 4-2-3-1
Southampton
- 1 D. Peretz
- 14 J. Bree
- 5 J. Stephens
- 13 K. Schlotterbeck
- 34 Welington
- 30 J. Ward-Prowse
- 26 C. Bragg
- 10 F. Azaz
- 7 L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
- 18 T. Fellows
- 9 C. Larin
Bolton Wanderers
- 31 G. Bazunu
- 27 L. Stephenson
- 18 E. Toal
- 5 L. Brunt
- 14 A. Famewo
- 8 J. Sheehan
- 4 X. Simons
- 22 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
- 17 A. Ito
- 11 T. Gale
- 10 S. Dalby
Substitutes
- 6 Z. Abbott
- 11 L. Dobbin
- 8 C. Jander
- 25 G. Long
- 27 K. Matsuki
- 3 R. Manning
- 23 S. Edozie
- 15 N. Wood-Gordon
- 28 D. Mubama
- 9 T. Bair
- 16 S. Iling
- 39 R. Hardie
- 6 B. Davies
- 1 J. Bonham
- 25 M. Conway
- 21 E. Erhahon
- 7 K. Dong
- 20 R. da Rocha Rodrigues
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →