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Middlesbrough – Cardiff City2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Middlesbrough
1.84
Total xG
3.14
Cardiff City
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Middlesbrough | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 2, 17 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 19, 17 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| Will Lankshear on the bench (8 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Sebastian Berhalter on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 57% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| Perry Ng on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Middlesbrough scores 2.4 goals per home match, Cardiff scores 0.8 goals per away match
- Table: Middlesbrough sits 2nd in the league after 10 matches, Cardiff City occupies 19th place
- Form: Middlesbrough won 3 of their last 5 matches, Cardiff City lost 2 of those games
Risks
- Attack: Cardiff City scored 2.0 goals per match across 5 games with xG data, generating 2.53 xG per match
- Defence: Middlesbrough conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match over their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Middlesbrough49%
Draw25%
Cardiff City26%
Double chance
Middlesbrough or draw74%
Cardiff City or draw51%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Middlesbrough: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Middlesbrough: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1 · Cardiff City 4-1-4-1
Middlesbrough
- 1 R. Vítek
- 2 C. Brittain
- 12 L. Ayling
- 4 A. Phillips
- 30 V. Borges dos Santos Neto
- 10 A. Morris
- 29 A. Malanda
- 11 A. Cozier-Duberry
- 8 R. McGree
- 9 T. Conway
- 22 K. Joseph
Cardiff City
- 1 N. Trott
- 44 R. Kpakio
- 5 K. Bielik
- 4 G. Osho
- 3 J. Bagan
- 18 A. Robertson
- 11 O. Tanner
- 27 J. Colwill
- 45 C. Ashford
- 16 C. Willock
- 8 J. Moylan
Substitutes
- 3 S. Byram
- 14 M. Peart-Harris
- 19 L. Castledine
- 7 W. Lankshear
- 31 S. Brynn
- 18 C. Barron
- 16 J. Sarmiento
- 17 M. Arfsten
- 6 S. Berhalter
- 30 H. Tyrer
- 2 W. Fish
- 38 P. Ng
- 39 I. Davies
- 47 C. Robinson
- 14 D. Turnbull
- 23 C. Scanlon
- 52 T. Perret
- 33 R. Tankiewicz
- 43 P. Ujobolo Moreno
- 50 C. Holt
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