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Wrexham – Preston North End4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Wrexham
1.49
Total xG
2.44
Preston North End
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Wrexham | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 24 vs 17, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 17 vs 24, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Wrexham score 1.2 goals per game at home in the league this season, Preston concede 2.2 goals per game away
- Table: Preston are 24th with 4 points from 10 games, Wrexham are 17th with 11 points
- Form: Preston have lost 8 of their 10 league games this season, Wrexham 3 losses in 10 games
Risks
- Form: Wrexham have won 2 of their 10 league games so far this season
- Defence: Wrexham have conceded 1.4 goals per game at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Wrexham48%
Draw29%
Preston North End22%
Double chance
Wrexham or draw78%
Preston North End or draw52%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Preston North End: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Preston North End: 10 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Preston North End: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Wrexham: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Preston North End: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Wrexham: 7 of 20 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Wrexham 3-4-1-2 · Preston North End 3-4-2-1
Wrexham
- 22 A. Patterson
- 5 D. Hyam
- 6 J. Worrall
- 2 C. Doyle
- 30 D. Imray
- 8 B. Whiteman
- 37 M. James
- 3 J. Ekomie
- 17 C. O'Hare
- 19 K. Moore
- 28 S. Smith
Preston North End
- 1 D. Iversen
- 14 J. Storey
- 6 L. Lindsay
- 16 A. Hughes
- 24 O. Offiah
- 27 L. Leroy
- 15 J. Thompson
- 3 A. Vukčević
- 10 C. Lang
- 7 A. Devine
- 38 J. Kenny
Substitutes
- 11 B. Cadamarteri
- 47 R. Longman
- 12 I. Kabore
- 21 D. Ward
- 34 A. James
- 27 L. O'Brien
- 20 O. Rathbone
- 15 G. Dobson
- 26 Z. Vyner
- 23 A. Moran
- 44 B. Potts
- 11 T. Small
- 2 P. Valentín Sancho
- 21 L. Nicholls
- 37 D. Burgzorg
- 9 J. Erabi
- 32 E. Nolan
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