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Cardiff City – Birmingham City1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Cardiff City
1.86
Total xG
3.19
Birmingham City
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cardiff City | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | +0.34 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 4, 15 places gap) | −0.33 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.29 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.54x league average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 19, 15 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| August Priske on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.4 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home: Cardiff City scores 2.4 goals per game at home in the league this season and concedes 1.2 per game
- Shots: Cardiff City averages 6.4 shots on target per game and 56.2% possession over the last 5 games
Risks
- Table: Birmingham City is 4th in the league with 20 points from 11 games, Cardiff City is 19th with 11 points
- Form: Birmingham City is undefeated in the last 5 games with 4 wins and 1 draw
All probabilities
Result
Cardiff City49%
Draw25%
Birmingham City26%
Double chance
Cardiff City or draw74%
Birmingham City or draw51%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.86 : 1.33, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cardiff City: 67% of all goals in the first half (12 of 18, last 12 games)
- Demarai Gray: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Cardiff City: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
- Cardiff City: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
- Birmingham City: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 21)
Lineups
Cardiff City 4-2-3-1 · Birmingham City 4-2-3-1
Cardiff City
- 1 N. Trott
- 38 P. Ng
- 2 W. Fish
- 3 J. Bagan
- 23 C. Scanlon
- 18 A. Robertson
- 8 J. Moylan
- 11 O. Tanner
- 27 J. Colwill
- 45 C. Ashford
- 9 Y. Salech
Birmingham City
- 1 J. Beadle
- 26 B. Osayi-Samuel
- 5 P. Neumann
- 4 C. Klarer
- 20 A. Cochrane
- 24 T. Iwata
- 14 J. Solis Romero
- 7 C. Vicente Robles
- 28 J. Stansfield
- 17 L. Millar
- 32 L. Vásquez
Substitutes
- 30 H. Tyrer
- 5 K. Bielik
- 44 R. Kpakio
- 16 C. Willock
- 39 I. Davies
- 14 D. Turnbull
- 52 T. Perret
- 33 R. Tankiewicz
- 50 C. Holt
- 40 N. Anyadike
- 19 T. Gardner-Hickman
- 21 R. Allsop
- 33 M. Ducksch
- 16 P. Roberts
- 3 L. Buchanan
- 10 D. Gray
- 2 E. Laird
- 23 D. Fry
- 18 M. Bird
- 9 A. Priske
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