Match report →
West Ham United – Southampton2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
West Ham United
1.95
Total xG
3.23
Southampton
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | West Ham United | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.58x league average) | +0.75 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.51 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.47 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.47 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.37 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| Joël Piroe on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Cyle Larin not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Flynn Downes not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.5 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: West Ham scores 3 goals per game at home in the league this season, Southampton scores 1 goal per game away
- Table: West Ham is 3rd in the league this season with 22 points, Southampton is 8th with 17 points
- Shots: West Ham had 7.2 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Southampton had 4.2 per game
Risks
- Defense: Southampton conceded 0.91 goals per game in the league this season, West Ham conceded 1.09 per game
All probabilities
Result
West Ham United52%
Draw25%
Southampton24%
Double chance
West Ham United or draw76%
Southampton or draw48%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.95 : 1.28, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- West Ham United with Manor Solomon starting: 2.7 goals/game, without him: 1.4 (10/19 games, last 30)
- West Ham United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Mohamadou Kanté: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- West Ham United: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
West Ham United 4-4-2 · Southampton 4-2-3-1
West Ham United
- 1 M. Hermansen
- 2 K. Walker-Peters
- 15 K. Mavropanos
- 3 M. Kilman
- 5 F. Rodrigues
- 20 J. Bowen
- 14 D. Mukasa
- 7 A. Engels
- 10 M. Solomon
- 11 V. Castellanos Giménez
- 17 M. Kanté
Southampton
- 1 D. Peretz
- 14 J. Bree
- 5 J. Stephens
- 13 K. Schlotterbeck
- 3 R. Manning
- 30 J. Ward-Prowse
- 8 C. Jander
- 27 K. Matsuki
- 10 F. Azaz
- 7 L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
- 11 L. Dobbin
Substitutes
- 34 J. Veltman
- 18 A. Boiro Boiro
- 9 J. Piroe
- 23 A. Areola
- 30 O. Scarles
- 19 P. Pereira de Jesus
- 28 T. Souček
- 35 E. Austbö
- 58 A. Golambeckis
- 63 E. Mayers
- 61 L. Orford
- 6 Z. Abbott
- 18 T. Fellows
- 2 M. Roerslev Rasmussen
- 25 G. Long
- 23 S. Edozie
- 15 N. Wood-Gordon
- 34 Welington
- 28 D. Mubama
- 26 C. Bragg
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