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Wolverhampton Wanderers – Watford1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.69
Total xG
2.53
Watford
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +1.00 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.61 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 7, 13 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 20, 13 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Fer López on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Wolverhampton sit in 7th place with 18 points, while Watford are in 20th place with 11 points
- Home/Away: Wolverhampton score 1.8 goals per game at home in the league this season, while Watford score 0.4 per game away
- Form: Watford suffered 4 defeats and conceded 2.4 goals per game in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Attack: Wolverhampton scored 1 goal per game in their last 5 matches, compared to 1.73 per game in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Wolverhampton Wanderers56%
Draw27%
Watford17%
Double chance
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw83%
Watford or draw44%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.68 : 0.84, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: 6 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Watford: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-2-3-1 · Watford 5-3-2
Wolverhampton Wanderers
- 1 J. Malheiro de Sá
- 2 K. Trippier
- 15 Y. Mosquera
- 37 L. Krejčí
- 3 H. Bueno
- 7 A. Trindade da Costa Neto
- 5 M. Munetsi
- 27 J. Bellegarde
- 8 J. James
- 19 R. Said Ahamada
- 10 A. Armstrong
Watford
- 1 F. Ravaglia
- 15 K. Diatta
- 4 K. Keben
- 6 M. Pollock
- 29 B. Mlacic
- 16 M. Bola
- 39 E. Kayembe
- 5 H. Kyprianou
- 17 I. Bravo Solanilla
- 10 M. Boadu
- 9 L. Kjerrumgaard
Substitutes
- 28 F. López González
- 38 J. Tchatchoua
- 36 M. Mané
- 24 T. Gomes
- 23 T. Chirewa
- 20 T. Doyle
- 13 J. Neves Virginia
- 34 N. Djiga
- 14 S. Neave
- 62 L. Rawlings
- 33 G. Konan
- 23 H. Traorè
- 3 S. Coulibaly
- 26 D. Bachmann
- 45 S. Mavididi
- 20 M. Doumbia
- 7 O. Maamma
- 11 R. Vata
- 33 J. Zemura
- 22 M. Payero
- 21 A. Nabizada
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