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Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough1 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Bolton Wanderers
1.18
Total xG
3.01
Middlesbrough
1.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bolton Wanderers | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +0.96 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.51 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.50 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | −0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.07 | |
| S. Dalby on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Luke Ayling on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Middlesbrough sit 3rd with 22 points from 11 games, while Bolton are 15th with 14 points
- Tactics: Middlesbrough average 61.4% possession and 7.6 shots on target per game over their last 5 matches
- Attack: Middlesbrough scored 2 goals per game in the league this season, Bolton conceded 1.64 per game
Risks
- Form: Bolton won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 1.8 goals per game during that run
All probabilities
Result
Bolton Wanderers23%
Draw26%
Middlesbrough51%
Double chance
Bolton Wanderers or draw49%
Middlesbrough or draw77%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.18 : 1.83, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
6%
1:3
6%
1:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Will Lankshear: 6 of 9 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Bolton Wanderers: 8 of 22 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Middlesbrough with Will Lankshear starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1.4 (10/19 games, last 30)
- Middlesbrough: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Bolton Wanderers 4-2-3-1 · Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1
Bolton Wanderers
- 31 G. Bazunu
- 22 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
- 18 E. Toal
- 5 L. Brunt
- 14 A. Famewo
- 8 J. Sheehan
- 21 E. Erhahon
- 7 K. Dong
- 20 R. da Rocha Rodrigues
- 11 T. Gale
- 9 T. Bair
Middlesbrough
- 1 R. Vítek
- 2 C. Brittain
- 4 A. Phillips
- 29 A. Malanda
- 30 V. Borges dos Santos Neto
- 10 A. Morris
- 6 S. Berhalter
- 11 A. Cozier-Duberry
- 8 R. McGree
- 9 T. Conway
- 7 W. Lankshear
Substitutes
- 16 S. Iling
- 39 R. Hardie
- 6 B. Davies
- 1 J. Bonham
- 25 M. Conway
- 4 X. Simons
- 10 S. Dalby
- 27 L. Stephenson
- 17 A. Ito
- 3 S. Byram
- 14 M. Peart-Harris
- 22 K. Joseph
- 19 L. Castledine
- 31 S. Brynn
- 12 L. Ayling
- 18 C. Barron
- 16 J. Sarmiento
- 17 M. Arfsten
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