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Charlton Athletic – Norwich City1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Charlton Athletic
1.28
Total xG
2.55
Norwich City
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Charlton Athletic | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.28 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Possession: Charlton averaged 48.6% possession over the last 5 matches, Norwich 50.2%
- Shots on target: Charlton averaged 3.6 shots on target per match over the last 5 matches, Norwich 4 per match
Risks
- Home/Away: Charlton conceded 0.4 goals per match at home in the league, Norwich 2.2 away per match
- Form: Norwich lost their last 5 matches, Charlton recorded 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Charlton Athletic35%
Draw30%
Norwich City35%
Double chance
Charlton Athletic or draw65%
Norwich City or draw65%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.28 : 1.26, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
0:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Norwich City: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Norwich City: 67% of all goals in the first half (12 of 18, last 12 games)
- Charlton Athletic: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Norwich City: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (12 points lost)
- Charlton Athletic: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
Charlton Athletic 4-2-3-1 · Norwich City 4-2-3-1
Charlton Athletic
- 13 A. Okonkwo
- 2 K. Ramsey
- 5 L. Jones
- 12 B. Koumetio
- 3 J. Edwards
- 6 C. Coventry
- 26 J. Rankin-Costello
- 7 T. Campbell
- 14 S. Carey
- 9 K. Ahearne-Grant
- 23 C. Kelman
Norwich City
- 32 D. Grimshaw
- 3 J. Stacey
- 15 R. McConville
- 6 H. Darling
- 14 B. Chrisene
- 16 J. Wright
- 7 P. Mattsson
- 11 A. Brookes
- 25 E. Maghoma
- 29 O. Schwartau
- 30 M. Kvistgaarden
Substitutes
- 34 O. Skipp
- 8 H. Knibbs
- 25 W. Mannion
- 11 M. Leaburn
- 17 A. Bell
- 19 M. Alli
- 44 T. Bindon
- 33 M. Mbick
- 20 D. McNamara
- 18 I. Mesík
- 32 A. Mwamba
- 13 D. Yongwa Ngameni
- 26 S. Field
- 17 A. Crnac
- 24 J. Makama
- 35 K. Fisher
- 33 J. Cordoba Chambers
- 23 K. McLean
- 1 V. Kovačević
- 49 A. Musaba
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