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Sheffield United – Derby County1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sheffield United
1.58
Total xG
2.56
Derby County
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sheffield United | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.79 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 23 vs 11, 12 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 23, 12 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.02 | |
| Sydie Peck on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Sam McCallum on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Mohammed Fuseini on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 94% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Sheffield United is 11th with 15 points in 11 games, Derby County is 23rd with 6 points in 11 games
- Away: Derby County concedes 2 goals per game away in the league this season, Sheffield United scores 1.4 per game at home
- Head to head: Sheffield United won 3 of the 4 meetings so far, Derby County 1
Risks
- Form: Sheffield United lost 3 of their last 5 matches
- Shots: Derby County averaged 4.6 shots on target per game in recent matches, Sheffield United 3.2 per game
All probabilities
Result
Sheffield United49%
Draw28%
Derby County22%
Double chance
Sheffield United or draw78%
Derby County or draw51%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.58 : 0.99, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Derby County: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (11 points lost)
- Sheffield United: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Sheffield United 4-2-3-1 · Derby County 4-2-3-1
Sheffield United
- 1 M. Cooper
- 8 H. Choudhury
- 5 J. Tanganga
- 15 L. Kitching
- 14 H. Burrows
- 27 K. Phillips
- 4 O. Arblaster
- 19 T. Chong
- 9 T. Cannon
- 22 B. Brereton
- 45 P. Bamford
Derby County
- 1 J. Widell Zetterström
- 23 J. Ward
- 24 R. Nyambe
- 28 D. Sanderson
- 26 R. Hedges
- 8 B. Clark
- 4 D. Ozoh
- 10 R. Brewster
- 11 S. Szmodics
- 19 H. Meister
- 9 C. Morris
Substitutes
- 11 R. Donovan
- 10 J. Ayew
- 25 M. McGuinness
- 42 S. Peck
- 3 S. McCallum
- 23 T. Campbell
- 38 F. Seriki
- 33 J. Baptiste
- 7 J. Rothwell
- 20 A. Mowatt
- 14 J. Robinson
- 22 M. Johnston
- 15 L. Salvesen
- 29 O. Fraulo
- 33 C. Taylor
- 31 J. Vickers
- 16 M. Fuseini
- 13 F. Bilbija
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