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Preston North End – West Bromwich Albion1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Preston North End
1.01
Total xG
2.57
West Bromwich Albion
1.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Preston North End | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.57 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.38 | |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.36 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 24 vs 5, 19 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 24, 19 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Callum Lang on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jordan Andrew Thompson on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 53% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Jimmy Morgan on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Aune Heggebø on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: West Bromwich sit 5th with 20 points from 11 games, while Preston are 24th with 4 points
- Form: Preston are winless in their last 5 games with 4 losses, while West Bromwich secured 2 wins in that period
- Head-to-head: West Bromwich have won 3 of the 4 meetings, with 1 draw and no wins for Preston
Risks
- Form: West Bromwich have lost 2 of their last 5 games in the league
All probabilities
Result
Preston North End23%
Draw28%
West Bromwich Albion49%
Double chance
Preston North End or draw51%
West Bromwich Albion or draw77%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.01 : 1.56, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
1:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Preston North End: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Preston North End: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- West Bromwich Albion: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Preston North End: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Preston North End 3-4-1-2 · West Bromwich Albion 4-4-2
Preston North End
- 1 D. Iversen
- 24 O. Offiah
- 14 J. Storey
- 16 A. Hughes
- 17 S. Mills
- 27 L. Leroy
- 44 B. Potts
- 3 A. Vukčević
- 7 A. Devine
- 38 J. Kenny
- 37 D. Burgzorg
West Bromwich Albion
- 1 M. O’Leary
- 18 B. Pereira
- 2 C. Mepham
- 6 G. Campbell
- 4 C. Styles
- 29 H. Whitwell
- 8 J. Molumby
- 17 O. Diakite
- 21 I. Price
- 7 F. Horn Myhre
- 9 B. Stewart
Substitutes
- 23 A. Moran
- 11 T. Small
- 2 P. Valentín Sancho
- 15 J. Thompson
- 6 L. Lindsay
- 21 L. Nicholls
- 10 C. Lang
- 12 C. Wiley
- 9 J. Erabi
- 32 E. Nolan
- 35 I. Irwin
- 20 R. Nzingoula
- 19 A. Heggebø
- 23 T. Bany
- 3 N. Phillips
- 22 C. Townsend
- 13 M. Ingram
- 11 J. Morgan
- 26 K. Tunde Ruiz
- 35 M. Crowther
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