Match report →
Lincoln City – Burnley4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Lincoln City
1.32
Total xG
2.68
Burnley
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lincoln City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.00 | |
| Freddie Draper not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jacob Bruun Larsen not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Zeki Amdouni not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 48% of goal output missing (only 71% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 0.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- xG: Lincoln averages 1.41 xG per match in 11 league matches, Burnley 1.30 xG per match
- Table: Lincoln sit 18th with 12 points from 11 matches, Burnley 22nd with 8 points in 11 matches
Risks
- Home/Away: Burnley score 1.6 goals per match in 5 away matches, Lincoln concede 2.4 per match in 5 home matches
- Shots: Burnley average 4.8 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Lincoln 2.6 per match
All probabilities
Result
Lincoln City34%
Draw29%
Burnley37%
Double chance
Lincoln City or draw63%
Burnley or draw66%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.32 : 1.36, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Burnley: dropped a lead in 6 of 7 games (15 points lost)
- Lincoln City: 2.9 cards per game (31 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Lincoln City: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
Lineups
Lincoln City 4-2-3-1 · Burnley 4-2-3-1
Lincoln City
- 1 G. Wickens
- 4 A. Coubis
- 25 D. Elerewe
- 15 S. Bradley
- 3 A. Reach
- 26 Y. Konak
- 14 C. McGrandles
- 7 R. Hackett-Fairchild
- 18 B. House
- 16 D. Jeffries
- 11 M. Riis Ladefoged
Burnley
- 37 G. Coudert
- 2 K. Walker
- 18 H. Ekdal
- 44 I. dos Santos de Paulo
- 23 L. Pires Silva
- 3 M. Alleyne
- 5 R. Hatate
- 19 L. Ramazani
- 29 J. Laurent
- 12 D. Satpaev
- 27 A. Broja
Substitutes
- 6 R. Towler
- 17 R. Street
- 24 I. Varfolomeev
- 8 T. Bayliss
- 19 I. Olaofe
- 27 C. Ogbene
- 46 J. Gauci
- 20 C. Elder
- 33 D. Oyegoke
- 17 A. Hountondji
- 8 U. Raghouber
- 14 C. Roberts
- 10 M. Edwards
- 1 M. Weiß
- 22 O. Sonne
- 41 G. Brierley
- 48 E. Atta Agyei
- 9 J. Vardy
- 30 L. Castell Solé
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →