Match report →
Portsmouth – Millwall2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Portsmouth
1.35
Total xG
2.53
Millwall
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portsmouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | +0.49 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Taïryk Arconte not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Portsmouth score 1.6 goals per match at home in the league this season, Millwall concede 2.0 per match away
- Form: Portsmouth took 2 wins from their last 5 matches, Millwall 1 win
Risks
- Attack: Millwall score 1.64 goals per match in the league this season, Portsmouth 1.27 per match
- Shots on target: Millwall averaged 4.8 shots on target per match in recent games, Portsmouth 3.8 per match
All probabilities
Result
Portsmouth39%
Draw30%
Millwall31%
Double chance
Portsmouth or draw69%
Millwall or draw61%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.35 : 1.18, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
Lineups
Portsmouth 4-2-3-1 · Millwall 4-2-3-1
Portsmouth
- 1 N. Schmid
- 24 T. Devlin
- 5 R. Poole
- 55 M. Dia
- 22 Z. Swanson
- 7 M. Pack
- 37 I. Mohamed
- 11 A. Kamara
- 10 A. Segečić
- 25 R. Kavuma-McQueen
- 29 M. Milovanović
Millwall
- 15 M. Crocombe
- 4 T. Crama
- 6 C. Taylor
- 5 J. Cooper
- 3 Z. Norton Sturge
- 14 J. Metcalfe
- 49 D. Mazou-Sacko
- 10 C. Neghli
- 25 L. Cundle
- 22 K. Lisbie
- 13 L. Dykes
Substitutes
- 27 O. Bailey
- 20 T. Waddingham
- 15 F. Umeh
- 17 T. Shade
- 38 E. Adams
- 16 J. Meghoma
- 19 R. Shein
- 31 D. Bielica
- 32 E. Kenny
- 11 R. Esse
- 12 E. Baggott
- 2 J. Osei-Tutu
- 17 M. Sykes
- 45 A. Doughty
- 9 M. Ivanović
- 41 G. Evans
- 18 R. Leonard
- 16 D. Kelly
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