Match report →
Stoke City – Bristol City0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Stoke City
1.50
Total xG
2.56
Bristol City
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Stoke City | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.87 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.42 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.29 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Eric-Junior Bocat not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Scott Twine on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Stoke City have 4 wins from their last 5 matches, Bristol City have 1 win
- Table: Stoke City are 6th in the league with 19 points, Bristol City are 15th with 14 points
Risks
- Away: Bristol City score 1.8 goals per match away from home in the league this season in 5 matches
- xG: Stoke City generated 0.92 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1.8 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Stoke City46%
Draw29%
Bristol City25%
Double chance
Stoke City or draw75%
Bristol City or draw54%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.50 : 1.06, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Stoke City: 7 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Bristol City: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Burnley: 2 goals (82', 90+1')
- Stoke City with Ethan Galbraith starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1 (11/19 games, last 30)
- Stoke City: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Stoke City: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)
Lineups
Stoke City 3-4-3 · Bristol City 3-5-2
Stoke City
- 1 V. Johansson
- 16 B. Wilmot
- 18 M. Bosun Lawal
- 5 L. Graham
- 2 B. Johnson
- 27 D. Soumaré
- 8 E. William Galbraith
- 21 L. Bombino
- 7 J. McGlynn
- 11 L. Cisse
- 13 J. Devenny
Bristol City
- 40 B. Collins
- 19 G. Tanner
- 15 L. McNally
- 2 L. Eissat
- 21 R. Cardines
- 12 J. Knight
- 8 J. Williams
- 27 G. Yah
- 3 C. Pring
- 23 D. Ballard
- 9 L. Tolaj
Substitutes
- 24 J. Griffiths
- 15 G. Hirst
- 23 B. Gibson
- 10 J. Bae
- 19 T. Rigo
- 9 R. Boženík
- 22 J. Tchamadeu
- 40 M. Talovierov
- 4 B. Pearson
- 17 J. Wallace
- 6 B. De Keersmaecker
- 1 S. Tickle
- 11 S. Bell
- 5 R. Atkinson
- 10 S. Twine
- 7 Y. Hirakawa
- 4 A. Randell
- 20 S. Greenwood
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