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Queens Park Rangers – Swansea City5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Queens Park Rangers
1.38
Total xG
2.57
Swansea City
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Queens Park Rangers | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | +0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 2, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 9, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Nicolas Madsen not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Moussa Yeo on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Queens Park Rangers score 1.6 goals per game at home in the league this season across 5 matches
- Attack: Queens Park Rangers average 1.71 xG per game in the league this season across 11 matches
Risks
- Table: Swansea City rank 2nd in the league with 23 points from 11 matches, Queens Park Rangers 9th with 17 points
- Form: Swansea City have won 4 of their last 5 matches, Queens Park Rangers 1 win in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Queens Park Rangers40%
Draw30%
Swansea City31%
Double chance
Queens Park Rangers or draw69%
Swansea City or draw60%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.38 : 1.19, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
0:2
5%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Swansea City: 7 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Queens Park Rangers: 40% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 15)
Lineups
Queens Park Rangers 4-4-2 · Swansea City 4-1-4-1
Queens Park Rangers
- 1 P. Charles
- 2 K. Adamson
- 3 J. Dunne
- 5 R. Edwards
- 12 B. Kemper
- 17 K. Poku
- 40 J. Varane
- 18 G. Kamara
- 20 H. Vale
- 22 R. Kone
- 11 P. Smyth
Swansea City
- 22 L. Vigouroux
- 26 F. Lissah
- 5 B. Cabango
- 23 S. Welsh
- 14 J. Tymon
- 6 M. Stamenic
- 30 J. Amankwaah Opoku
- 8 E. Just
- 46 S. Antunes Eustáquio
- 7 M. Widell
- 33 A. Idah
Substitutes
- 19 D. Cirkin
- 25 J. Obikwu
- 14 K. Saito
- 23 I. Alemayehu Mulugeta
- 26 R. Kolli
- 4 L. Morrison
- 7 K. Dembélé
- 13 C. Ward
- 33 L. Scarlett
- 3 J. Seelt
- 12 J. Monga
- 35 R. Pereira Martins
- 10 J. Eom
- 9 Ž. Vipotnik
- 17 G. Franco
- 4 J. Fulton
- 1 A. Fisher
- 31 R. Stewart
- 16 T. Iorpenda
- 49 M. Yeo
- 20 T. Geraldes Parente
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