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Blackburn Rovers – Wrexham2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Blackburn Rovers
1.27
Total xG
2.36
Wrexham
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Blackburn Rovers | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.44 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Ryoya Morishita not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kristi Montgomery on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Blackburn score 1.8 goals per game at home in the league this season, Wrexham concede 1.6 per game away
- Form: Blackburn recorded 3 wins from their last 5 games, Wrexham 2 wins
Risks
- Defense: Blackburn allowed 2.14 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 1.4 goals per game
- Table: Wrexham are on 14 points in the league, one point behind Blackburn on 15 points
All probabilities
Result
Blackburn Rovers39%
Draw31%
Wrexham30%
Double chance
Blackburn Rovers or draw70%
Wrexham or draw61%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.27 : 1.09, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Blackburn Rovers: 41% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 17)
- Blackburn Rovers: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Blackburn Rovers with Oladapo Afolayan starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (12/11 games, last 30)
- Blackburn Rovers: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (13 points lost)
Lineups
Blackburn Rovers 4-2-3-1 · Wrexham 3-4-2-1
Blackburn Rovers
- 22 B. Tóth
- 2 R. Alebiousu
- 17 H. Carter
- 15 S. McLoughlin
- 3 H. Pickering
- 8 S. Morsy
- 24 M. Baradji
- 11 J. Fevrier
- 10 T. Cantwell
- 21 O. Afolayan
- 9 A. Guojohnsen
Wrexham
- 22 A. Patterson
- 5 D. Hyam
- 6 J. Worrall
- 2 C. Doyle
- 12 I. Kabore
- 37 M. James
- 8 B. Whiteman
- 3 J. Ekomie
- 28 S. Smith
- 17 C. O'Hare
- 19 K. Moore
Substitutes
- 14 D. De Neve
- 30 J. Garrett
- 31 K. Montgomery
- 7 A. Kargbo
- 1 A. Pears
- 16 S. Wharton
- 27 G. Beyuku Bowutankoyi
- 6 T. Atcheson
- 39 H. Pates
- 48 I. Dunn
- 11 B. Cadamarteri
- 47 R. Longman
- 18 B. Sheaf
- 21 D. Ward
- 27 L. O'Brien
- 20 O. Rathbone
- 15 G. Dobson
- 30 D. Imray
- 26 Z. Vyner
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