Match report →
Norwich City – Watford3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Norwich City
1.58
Total xG
2.63
Watford
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Norwich City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.30 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | +0.21 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Oscar Schwartau on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Luca Kjerrumgaard not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Norwich City average 1.67 goals per game at home in the league this season, Watford 0.33 away
- Attack: Watford scored 0.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches, and 0.33 goals per game away in the league this season
Risks
- Form: Norwich City recorded 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 matches
- Table: Norwich City sit 20th in the league with 12 points, Watford are 21st with 11 points
All probabilities
Result
Norwich City48%
Draw28%
Watford24%
Double chance
Norwich City or draw76%
Watford or draw52%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.58 : 1.05, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Norwich City: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Watford: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Watford: 3 cards per game (33 yellows, 0 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
Norwich City 4-2-3-1 · Watford 5-3-2
Norwich City
- 32 D. Grimshaw
- 3 J. Stacey
- 15 R. McConville
- 33 J. Cordoba Chambers
- 14 B. Chrisene
- 16 J. Wright
- 26 S. Field
- 11 A. Brookes
- 25 E. Maghoma
- 49 A. Musaba
- 30 M. Kvistgaarden
Watford
- 1 F. Ravaglia
- 15 K. Diatta
- 4 K. Keben
- 6 M. Pollock
- 29 B. Mlacic
- 33 J. Zemura
- 39 E. Kayembe
- 5 H. Kyprianou
- 22 M. Payero
- 10 M. Boadu
- 17 I. Bravo Solanilla
Substitutes
- 13 D. Yongwa Ngameni
- 17 A. Crnac
- 7 P. Mattsson
- 29 O. Schwartau
- 22 M. Topić
- 12 L. Mahovo
- 24 J. Makama
- 35 K. Fisher
- 20 A. Slimane
- 6 H. Darling
- 1 V. Kovačević
- 23 H. Traorè
- 26 D. Bachmann
- 45 S. Mavididi
- 16 M. Bola
- 20 M. Doumbia
- 7 O. Maamma
- 11 R. Vata
- 51 T. Akomeah
- 21 A. Nabizada
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →