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Swansea City – Blackburn Rovers4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Swansea City
1.42
Total xG
2.47
Blackburn Rovers
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Swansea City | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.5x league average) | −0.93 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.49 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 2, 9 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 11, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Adam Idah on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Moussa Yeo not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Ryoya Morishita not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Swansea rank 2nd in the league with 23 points from 12 games, Blackburn 11th with 18 points
- Home/Away: Swansea concede 0.5 goals per game at home in the league, Blackburn concede 1.5 per game away
- Head-to-head: Swansea won 3 of the 4 previous meetings against Blackburn
Risks
- Form: Blackburn recorded 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 games
- Attack: Blackburn scored 1.58 goals per game in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Swansea City44%
Draw30%
Blackburn Rovers26%
Double chance
Swansea City or draw74%
Blackburn Rovers or draw56%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.42 : 1.05, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:0
10%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Blackburn Rovers with Andri Gudjohnsen starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (11/11 games, last 30)
- Blackburn Rovers: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Blackburn Rovers: 37% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 19)
Lineups
Swansea City 4-2-3-1 · Blackburn Rovers 4-2-3-1
Swansea City
- 22 L. Vigouroux
- 26 F. Lissah
- 5 B. Cabango
- 23 S. Welsh
- 14 J. Tymon
- 4 J. Fulton
- 46 S. Antunes Eustáquio
- 30 J. Amankwaah Opoku
- 7 M. Widell
- 10 J. Eom
- 31 R. Stewart
Blackburn Rovers
- 22 B. Tóth
- 2 R. Alebiousu
- 6 T. Atcheson
- 15 S. McLoughlin
- 3 H. Pickering
- 24 M. Baradji
- 31 K. Montgomery
- 11 J. Fevrier
- 10 T. Cantwell
- 21 O. Afolayan
- 9 A. Guojohnsen
Substitutes
- 3 J. Seelt
- 12 J. Monga
- 33 A. Idah
- 9 Ž. Vipotnik
- 2 J. Key
- 17 G. Franco
- 6 M. Stamenic
- 1 A. Fisher
- 8 E. Just
- 20 T. Geraldes Parente
- 14 D. De Neve
- 30 J. Garrett
- 4 Y. Oliveira Ribeiro
- 23 Y. Ohashi
- 7 A. Kargbo
- 1 A. Pears
- 17 H. Carter
- 27 G. Beyuku Bowutankoyi
- 48 I. Dunn
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