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Wolverhampton Wanderers – Cardiff City3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.59
Total xG
2.91
Cardiff City
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.58 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.37 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Cian Ashford on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Wolverhampton sit 4th with 21 points from 12 matches, Cardiff City are 16th with 14 points from 12 matches
- Home/Away: Wolverhampton score 1.67 goals per home match in the league, Cardiff concede 1.83 per away match
Risks
- Form: Cardiff City recorded 3 wins from their last 5 matches, Wolverhampton Wanderers 2 wins from their last 5 matches
- Attack: Cardiff City scored 2.4 goals per match in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Wolverhampton Wanderers42%
Draw27%
Cardiff City31%
Double chance
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw70%
Cardiff City or draw58%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.59 : 1.33, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers with Fer López starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (10/19 games, last 30)
- Cardiff City: 68% of all goals in the first half (13 of 19, last 12 games)
- Cardiff City: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: 6 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-2-3-1 · Cardiff City 4-2-3-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers
- 1 J. Malheiro de Sá
- 2 K. Trippier
- 15 Y. Mosquera
- 37 L. Krejčí
- 3 H. Bueno
- 7 A. Trindade da Costa Neto
- 5 M. Munetsi
- 28 F. López González
- 8 J. James
- 19 R. Said Ahamada
- 10 A. Armstrong
Cardiff City
- 1 N. Trott
- 38 P. Ng
- 2 W. Fish
- 3 J. Bagan
- 23 C. Scanlon
- 27 J. Colwill
- 18 A. Robertson
- 11 O. Tanner
- 8 J. Moylan
- 16 C. Willock
- 9 Y. Salech
Substitutes
- 38 J. Tchatchoua
- 27 J. Bellegarde
- 36 M. Mané
- 21 R. Gomes
- 24 T. Gomes
- 23 T. Chirewa
- 20 T. Doyle
- 13 J. Neves Virginia
- 14 S. Neave
- 30 H. Tyrer
- 44 R. Kpakio
- 10 R. Colwill
- 45 C. Ashford
- 14 D. Turnbull
- 33 R. Tankiewicz
- 43 P. Ujobolo Moreno
- 50 C. Holt
- 40 N. Anyadike
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