Match report →
Sheffield United – Wrexham1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sheffield United
1.49
Total xG
2.48
Wrexham
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sheffield United | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.33 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.26 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Patrick Bamford not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tom Cannon on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 45% of goal output missing (only 73% available) | ||
| Ben Whiteman on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Sheffield United average 1.33 goals per game at home in the league, while Wrexham concede 1.67 away
- Table: Sheffield United are 12th with 16 points from 12 games, while Wrexham are 17th with 14 points
- Attack: Sheffield United registered 4.8 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Wrexham 3.6
Risks
- Form: Wrexham recorded 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 goals
- Possession: Wrexham averaged 48.6% possession in their last 5 matches, compared to 47.2% for Sheffield United
All probabilities
Result
Sheffield United47%
Draw29%
Wrexham23%
Double chance
Sheffield United or draw77%
Wrexham or draw53%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.49 : 0.99, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sheffield United: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Sheffield United 4-4-2 · Wrexham 3-4-2-1
Sheffield United
- 1 M. Cooper
- 8 H. Choudhury
- 5 J. Tanganga
- 15 L. Kitching
- 14 H. Burrows
- 19 T. Chong
- 42 S. Peck
- 27 K. Phillips
- 11 R. Donovan
- 10 J. Ayew
- 22 B. Brereton
Wrexham
- 22 A. Patterson
- 5 D. Hyam
- 6 J. Worrall
- 2 C. Doyle
- 12 I. Kabore
- 37 M. James
- 18 B. Sheaf
- 3 J. Ekomie
- 20 O. Rathbone
- 27 L. O'Brien
- 19 K. Moore
Substitutes
- 44 J. Riedewald
- 25 M. McGuinness
- 9 T. Cannon
- 4 O. Arblaster
- 3 S. McCallum
- 23 T. Campbell
- 38 F. Seriki
- 33 J. Baptiste
- 7 J. Rothwell
- 31 T. Betts
- 17 C. O'Hare
- 11 B. Cadamarteri
- 8 B. Whiteman
- 21 D. Ward
- 14 G. Thomason
- 15 G. Dobson
- 4 M. Cleworth
- 28 S. Smith
- 30 D. Imray
- 26 Z. Vyner
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