Match report →
Bolton Wanderers – Bristol City2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Bolton Wanderers
1.60
Total xG
2.78
Bristol City
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bolton Wanderers | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.74 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.35 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Rúben Rodrigues on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Scott Twine on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Attack: Bolton Wanderers scored 1.8 goals per match in their last 5 matches, Bristol City 0.4 per match
- Shots on target: Bolton Wanderers averaged 4.6 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Bristol City 3.6 per match
Risks
- Home/Away: Bolton Wanderers concede 2 goals per match at home in the league this season, Bristol City score 1.5 per match away
- Table: Bristol City are ahead in the league with 15 points from 12 matches, compared to Bolton Wanderers with 14 points from 12 matches
- xG: Bristol City generated 1.32 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 0.4 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Bolton Wanderers46%
Draw28%
Bristol City27%
Double chance
Bolton Wanderers or draw73%
Bristol City or draw54%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.60 : 1.18, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
2:3
Final score
Lineups
Bolton Wanderers 4-2-3-1 · Bristol City 3-5-2
Bolton Wanderers
- 1 J. Bonham
- 22 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
- 3 C. Forino-Joseph
- 6 B. Davies
- 25 M. Conway
- 4 X. Simons
- 8 J. Sheehan
- 16 S. Iling
- 17 A. Ito
- 11 T. Gale
- 10 S. Dalby
Bristol City
- 40 B. Collins
- 19 G. Tanner
- 15 L. McNally
- 2 L. Eissat
- 21 R. Cardines
- 12 J. Knight
- 8 J. Williams
- 6 B. De Keersmaecker
- 3 C. Pring
- 9 L. Tolaj
- 23 D. Ballard
Substitutes
- 9 T. Bair
- 14 A. Famewo
- 23 D. Harrington
- 5 L. Brunt
- 31 G. Bazunu
- 18 E. Toal
- 27 L. Stephenson
- 7 K. Dong
- 20 R. da Rocha Rodrigues
- 12 D. Watson
- 35 M. Lott
- 17 J. Wallace
- 1 S. Tickle
- 11 S. Bell
- 5 R. Atkinson
- 10 S. Twine
- 7 Y. Hirakawa
- 4 A. Randell
- 14 T. Horvat
- 27 G. Yah
- 20 S. Greenwood
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