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Millwall – Derby County4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Millwall
1.67
Total xG
2.62
Derby County
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Millwall | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.28 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 23 vs 13, 10 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 23, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Mohammed Fuseini on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Millwall score 1.83 goals per game at home in the league this season, Derby County concede 1.83 per game away
- Standings: Millwall are 13th in the league with 15 points, Derby County are 23rd with 7 points
- Form: Derby County are winless in their last 5 games with 3 draws and 2 losses
Risks
- Form: Millwall recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 games
- xG: Millwall generated 1.65 xG per game across 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.2 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Millwall53%
Draw27%
Derby County20%
Double chance
Millwall or draw80%
Derby County or draw47%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.67 : 0.94, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
1:2
5%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Derby County: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (10 points lost)
- Millwall: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Millwall: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Millwall 4-2-3-1 · Derby County 4-2-3-1
Millwall
- 15 M. Crocombe
- 4 T. Crama
- 6 C. Taylor
- 5 J. Cooper
- 3 Z. Norton Sturge
- 14 J. Metcalfe
- 49 D. Mazou-Sacko
- 10 C. Neghli
- 25 L. Cundle
- 22 K. Lisbie
- 13 L. Dykes
Derby County
- 1 J. Widell Zetterström
- 22 M. Johnston
- 24 R. Nyambe
- 14 J. Robinson
- 26 R. Hedges
- 4 D. Ozoh
- 8 B. Clark
- 10 R. Brewster
- 11 S. Szmodics
- 19 H. Meister
- 9 C. Morris
Substitutes
- 11 R. Esse
- 12 E. Baggott
- 17 M. Sykes
- 45 A. Doughty
- 9 M. Ivanović
- 41 G. Evans
- 18 R. Leonard
- 16 D. Kelly
- 19 J. Coburn
- 20 A. Mowatt
- 25 S. Duffy
- 15 L. Salvesen
- 29 O. Fraulo
- 33 C. Taylor
- 31 J. Vickers
- 23 J. Ward
- 16 M. Fuseini
- 43 I. Gordon
- 13 F. Bilbija
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