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Stoke City – Preston North End2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Stoke City
1.72
Total xG
2.62
Preston North End
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Stoke City | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.55 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 24 vs 9, 15 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 24, 15 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Eric-Junior Bocat not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lamine Cissé not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Stoke City score 1.67 goals per game at home in the league, Preston North End concede 2.5 per game away
- Form: Stoke City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches, Preston North End are winless in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Head-to-head: Stoke City are winless in 4 meetings with Preston North End (1 loss, 3 draws)
- Personnel: Stoke City without E. Bocat, who started 4 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Stoke City55%
Draw27%
Preston North End18%
Double chance
Stoke City or draw82%
Preston North End or draw45%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.72 : 0.90, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Stoke City: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Preston North End: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Stoke City: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Stoke City with Ethan Galbraith starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 1 (12/18 games, last 30)
- Preston North End: 9 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Preston North End: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Stoke City 3-4-3 · Preston North End 3-4-3
Stoke City
- 1 V. Johansson
- 16 B. Wilmot
- 18 M. Bosun Lawal
- 5 L. Graham
- 2 B. Johnson
- 27 D. Soumaré
- 8 E. William Galbraith
- 21 L. Bombino
- 7 J. McGlynn
- 9 R. Boženík
- 13 J. Devenny
Preston North End
- 1 D. Iversen
- 24 O. Offiah
- 14 J. Storey
- 16 A. Hughes
- 44 B. Potts
- 27 L. Leroy
- 15 J. Thompson
- 3 A. Vukčević
- 10 C. Lang
- 38 J. Kenny
- 37 D. Burgzorg
Substitutes
- 24 J. Griffiths
- 6 S. Ingelsson
- 15 G. Hirst
- 42 M. Manhoef
- 10 J. Bae
- 19 T. Rigo
- 22 J. Tchamadeu
- 40 M. Talovierov
- 4 B. Pearson
- 23 A. Moran
- 7 A. Devine
- 11 T. Small
- 6 L. Lindsay
- 21 L. Nicholls
- 17 S. Mills
- 12 C. Wiley
- 9 J. Erabi
- 32 E. Nolan
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