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West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
West Ham United
1.79
Total xG
3.04
West Bromwich Albion
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | West Ham United | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +0.61 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.49 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Manor Solomon on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Taty Castellanos on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Harry Whitwell on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: West Ham score 2.83 goals per game at home in the league this season, West Brom 1.17 per game away
- Shots: West Ham recorded 7.6 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, West Brom 3.2 per game
Risks
- Defense: West Brom concede 1.08 goals per game in the league this season, West Ham 1.25 per game
- Table: West Brom rank 5th in the league after 12 games with 21 points, West Ham 3rd with 22 points
All probabilities
Result
West Ham United49%
Draw26%
West Bromwich Albion25%
Double chance
West Ham United or draw75%
West Bromwich Albion or draw51%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.79 : 1.24, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- West Ham United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Mohamadou Kanté: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- West Bromwich Albion: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- West Bromwich Albion: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
West Ham United 4-4-2 · West Bromwich Albion 4-4-2
West Ham United
- 1 M. Hermansen
- 2 K. Walker-Peters
- 58 A. Golambeckis
- 3 M. Kilman
- 5 F. Rodrigues
- 20 J. Bowen
- 14 D. Mukasa
- 7 A. Engels
- 35 E. Austbö
- 19 P. Pereira de Jesus
- 17 M. Kanté
West Bromwich Albion
- 1 M. O’Leary
- 18 B. Pereira
- 2 C. Mepham
- 6 G. Campbell
- 4 C. Styles
- 20 R. Nzingoula
- 8 J. Molumby
- 17 O. Diakite
- 21 I. Price
- 11 J. Morgan
- 7 F. Horn Myhre
Substitutes
- 34 J. Veltman
- 9 J. Piroe
- 27 S. Magassa
- 23 A. Areola
- 30 O. Scarles
- 11 V. Castellanos Giménez
- 15 K. Mavropanos
- 28 T. Souček
- 10 M. Solomon
- 63 E. Mayers
- 61 L. Orford
- 19 A. Heggebø
- 23 T. Bany
- 3 N. Phillips
- 29 H. Whitwell
- 22 C. Townsend
- 13 M. Ingram
- 26 K. Tunde Ruiz
- 9 B. Stewart
- 35 M. Crowther
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