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Middlesbrough – Charlton Athletic3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Middlesbrough
2.45
Total xG
3.18
Charlton Athletic
0.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Middlesbrough | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.96 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.48 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.34 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.25 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.19 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 19, 18 places gap) | +0.17 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 1, 18 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Luke Ayling on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tyreece Campbell on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Karlan Grant on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 56% of goal output missing (only 61% available) |
Key factors
- Table: Middlesbrough is 1st in the league, Charlton Athletic is 19th
- Home/Away: In the league, Middlesbrough scores 2.33 goals per game at home, Charlton Athletic concedes 2.17 per game away
- Form: Middlesbrough won 3 of their last 5 matches, Charlton Athletic remained winless in that period
Risks
- Defence: Middlesbrough conceded 1.5 goals per game at home in the league this season
- xG: Charlton Athletic generated 1.57 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1 goal per game
All probabilities
Result
Middlesbrough74%
Draw18%
Charlton Athletic8%
Double chance
Middlesbrough or draw92%
Charlton Athletic or draw26%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.45 : 0.72, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:1
8%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Middlesbrough: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Middlesbrough with Will Lankshear starting: 2.3 goals/game, without him: 1.3 (11/18 games, last 30)
- Middlesbrough: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1 · Charlton Athletic 5-3-2
Middlesbrough
- 1 R. Vítek
- 2 C. Brittain
- 4 A. Phillips
- 29 A. Malanda
- 30 V. Borges dos Santos Neto
- 6 S. Berhalter
- 10 A. Morris
- 11 A. Cozier-Duberry
- 8 R. McGree
- 9 T. Conway
- 7 W. Lankshear
Charlton Athletic
- 13 A. Okonkwo
- 2 K. Ramsey
- 44 T. Bindon
- 5 L. Jones
- 12 B. Koumetio
- 17 A. Bell
- 8 H. Knibbs
- 34 O. Skipp
- 26 J. Rankin-Costello
- 11 M. Leaburn
- 23 C. Kelman
Substitutes
- 3 S. Byram
- 14 M. Peart-Harris
- 22 K. Joseph
- 19 L. Castledine
- 13 D. Strelec
- 31 S. Brynn
- 12 L. Ayling
- 16 J. Sarmiento
- 17 M. Arfsten
- 25 W. Mannion
- 6 C. Coventry
- 7 T. Campbell
- 14 S. Carey
- 9 K. Ahearne-Grant
- 19 M. Alli
- 15 N. Chalobah
- 20 D. McNamara
- 18 I. Mesík
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