Match report →
Southampton – Queens Park Rangers4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Southampton
1.69
Total xG
2.83
Queens Park Rangers
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Southampton | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.43 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.5 vs 2 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.02 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| Cyle Larin not in squad (7 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Flynn Downes on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 97% available) | ||
| Nicolas Madsen not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Southampton score 2.67 goals per game at home in the league this season, QPR score 1.17 per game away
- Form: Southampton won 3 of their last 5 matches in the league, QPR won 2 of their last 5 matches
Risks
- Table: Queens Park Rangers have collected 20 points from 12 matches in the league this season, same as Southampton
- Shots: Queens Park Rangers had 5.2 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Southampton 4.6 per game
All probabilities
Result
Southampton49%
Draw27%
Queens Park Rangers24%
Double chance
Southampton or draw76%
Queens Park Rangers or draw51%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.69 : 1.14, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Southampton: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Queens Park Rangers: 65% of all goals in the first half (13 of 20, last 12 games)
- Queens Park Rangers: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 20)
Lineups
Southampton 4-2-3-1 · Queens Park Rangers 4-4-2
Southampton
- 1 D. Peretz
- 14 J. Bree
- 5 J. Stephens
- 13 K. Schlotterbeck
- 3 R. Manning
- 26 C. Bragg
- 30 J. Ward-Prowse
- 27 K. Matsuki
- 10 F. Azaz
- 7 L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
- 11 L. Dobbin
Queens Park Rangers
- 1 P. Charles
- 2 K. Adamson
- 3 J. Dunne
- 5 R. Edwards
- 12 B. Kemper
- 17 K. Poku
- 40 J. Varane
- 18 G. Kamara
- 20 H. Vale
- 11 P. Smyth
- 22 R. Kone
Substitutes
- 6 Z. Abbott
- 8 C. Jander
- 18 T. Fellows
- 25 G. Long
- 4 F. Downes
- 23 S. Edozie
- 15 N. Wood-Gordon
- 34 Welington
- 28 D. Mubama
- 53 B. Williams
- 19 D. Cirkin
- 14 K. Saito
- 10 I. Chair
- 6 J. Clarke-Salter
- 23 I. Alemayehu Mulugeta
- 26 R. Kolli
- 7 K. Dembélé
- 15 A. Lloyd
- 13 C. Ward
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →