Match report →
Burnley – Portsmouth0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Burnley
1.31
Total xG
2.51
Portsmouth
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Burnley | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −1.30 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.70 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.45 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 22 vs 12, 10 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 22, 10 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Shots: Burnley averaged 4.4 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Portsmouth 2.8 per match
- Attack: Burnley scored 1.8 goals per match in the last 5 matches, Portsmouth 1.4 per match
Risks
- Table: Portsmouth are 12th in the league this season with 18 points, Burnley 22nd with 8 points
- Form: Portsmouth won 3 of their last 5 matches, Burnley 1 match
All probabilities
Result
Burnley37%
Draw30%
Portsmouth32%
Double chance
Burnley or draw68%
Portsmouth or draw63%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.31 : 1.20, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Burnley: dropped a lead in 7 of 8 games (18 points lost)
- Burnley: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Portsmouth: 5 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Burnley: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Burnley 4-2-3-1 · Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
Burnley
- 37 G. Coudert
- 2 K. Walker
- 18 H. Ekdal
- 44 I. dos Santos de Paulo
- 23 L. Pires Silva
- 17 A. Hountondji
- 5 R. Hatate
- 10 M. Edwards
- 29 J. Laurent
- 19 L. Ramazani
- 9 J. Vardy
Portsmouth
- 1 N. Schmid
- 22 Z. Swanson
- 5 R. Poole
- 55 M. Dia
- 16 J. Meghoma
- 7 M. Pack
- 37 I. Mohamed
- 11 A. Kamara
- 10 A. Segečić
- 25 R. Kavuma-McQueen
- 29 M. Milovanović
Substitutes
- 8 U. Raghouber
- 24 J. Cullen
- 14 C. Roberts
- 1 M. Weiß
- 22 O. Sonne
- 21 A. Ramsey
- 15 A. Ahmedhodzic
- 34 J. Banel
- 3 M. Alleyne
- 27 O. Bailey
- 20 T. Waddingham
- 23 J. Murphy
- 6 C. Shaughnessy
- 24 T. Devlin
- 17 T. Shade
- 38 E. Adams
- 19 R. Shein
- 31 D. Bielica
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →