Match report →
Lincoln City – Birmingham City1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Lincoln City
1.25
Total xG
2.74
Birmingham City
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lincoln City | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | +0.81 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.42 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Freddie Draper on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Carlos Vicente on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Birmingham City is 7th in the Championship with 20 points, Lincoln City is 15th with 15 points
- Form: Birmingham City won 3 of their last 5 matches, Lincoln City won 1 of their last 5 matches
- Defense: Lincoln City concedes 2.17 goals per match at home in the league, Birmingham City 0.83 goals per match away
Risks
- Away: Birmingham City scores 1 goal per match away in the league this season, 2.33 goals per match at home
- Defense: Birmingham City conceded 1.50 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 0.6 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Lincoln City30%
Draw29%
Birmingham City41%
Double chance
Lincoln City or draw59%
Birmingham City or draw70%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.25 : 1.48, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Demarai Gray: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Birmingham City: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 20)
Lineups
Lincoln City 4-2-3-1 · Birmingham City 4-2-3-1
Lincoln City
- 1 G. Wickens
- 4 A. Coubis
- 25 D. Elerewe
- 15 S. Bradley
- 3 A. Reach
- 26 Y. Konak
- 24 I. Varfolomeev
- 7 R. Hackett-Fairchild
- 18 B. House
- 16 D. Jeffries
- 11 M. Riis Ladefoged
Birmingham City
- 1 J. Beadle
- 2 E. Laird
- 5 P. Neumann
- 4 C. Klarer
- 20 A. Cochrane
- 24 T. Iwata
- 14 J. Solis Romero
- 16 P. Roberts
- 28 J. Stansfield
- 17 L. Millar
- 9 A. Priske
Substitutes
- 6 R. Towler
- 17 R. Street
- 8 T. Bayliss
- 34 F. Draper
- 14 C. McGrandles
- 19 I. Olaofe
- 27 C. Ogbene
- 46 J. Gauci
- 20 C. Elder
- 33 D. Oyegoke
- 7 C. Vicente Robles
- 19 T. Gardner-Hickman
- 21 R. Allsop
- 26 B. Osayi-Samuel
- 33 M. Ducksch
- 3 L. Buchanan
- 10 D. Gray
- 18 M. Bird
- 32 L. Vásquez
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