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Portsmouth – Swansea City3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Portsmouth
1.31
Total xG
2.45
Swansea City
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portsmouth | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 2, 9 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 11, 9 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Kavuma-McQueen on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Zak Swanson on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Moussa Yeo not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Portsmouth are undefeated in their last 5 matches with 3 wins and 2 draws, Swansea City suffered 2 losses
- Defense: Portsmouth conceded 0.8 goals per game in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Table: Swansea City sit 2nd in the league with 26 points from 13 games, Portsmouth are 11th with 19 points
- Shots: Swansea City average 4.4 shots on target per game in recent matches, Portsmouth 2.2 per game
All probabilities
Result
Portsmouth39%
Draw31%
Swansea City31%
Double chance
Portsmouth or draw69%
Swansea City or draw61%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.31 : 1.14, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
10%
1:0
10%
2:1
8%
0:1
8%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Portsmouth: 5 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Swansea City: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Portsmouth 4-2-3-1 · Swansea City 4-3-3
Portsmouth
- 1 N. Schmid
- 24 T. Devlin
- 5 R. Poole
- 55 M. Dia
- 16 J. Meghoma
- 38 E. Adams
- 37 I. Mohamed
- 10 A. Segečić
- 27 O. Bailey
- 17 T. Shade
- 29 M. Milovanović
Swansea City
- 22 L. Vigouroux
- 26 F. Lissah
- 3 J. Seelt
- 23 S. Welsh
- 14 J. Tymon
- 17 G. Franco
- 4 J. Fulton
- 6 M. Stamenic
- 30 J. Amankwaah Opoku
- 33 A. Idah
- 7 M. Widell
Substitutes
- 11 A. Kamara
- 20 T. Waddingham
- 7 M. Pack
- 23 J. Murphy
- 22 Z. Swanson
- 6 C. Shaughnessy
- 19 R. Shein
- 25 R. Kavuma-McQueen
- 31 D. Bielica
- 12 J. Monga
- 5 B. Cabango
- 10 J. Eom
- 9 Ž. Vipotnik
- 2 J. Key
- 1 A. Fisher
- 31 R. Stewart
- 16 T. Iorpenda
- 8 E. Just
- 44 T. Woodward
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