Match report →
Preston North End – Sheffield United2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Preston North End
1.09
Total xG
2.41
Sheffield United
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Preston North End | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.22 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 24 vs 10, 14 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 24, 14 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Callum Lang on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Patrick Bamford not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kalvin Phillips on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 77% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Sheffield United have 3 wins from their last 5 matches, while Preston North End are winless in their last 5
- Table: Sheffield United sit 10th in the league with 19 points, while Preston North End are 24th with 5 points
- Tactics: Sheffield United recorded 5.0 shots on target per match in their last 5 games, compared to 1.4 for Preston North End
Risks
- Away: Sheffield United have conceded 1.33 goals per match in 6 away league games this season
- Head-to-head: Both teams have won 2 matches each across 4 previous meetings
All probabilities
Result
Preston North End29%
Draw31%
Sheffield United40%
Double chance
Preston North End or draw60%
Sheffield United or draw71%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.09 : 1.32, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
11%
0:1
10%
1:2
9%
1:0
8%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Preston North End: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Preston North End: 9 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Preston North End: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Preston North End 3-4-1-2 · Sheffield United 4-4-2
Preston North End
- 1 D. Iversen
- 24 O. Offiah
- 14 J. Storey
- 16 A. Hughes
- 17 S. Mills
- 27 L. Leroy
- 15 J. Thompson
- 3 A. Vukčević
- 23 A. Moran
- 38 J. Kenny
- 9 J. Erabi
Sheffield United
- 1 M. Cooper
- 8 H. Choudhury
- 5 J. Tanganga
- 25 M. McGuinness
- 14 H. Burrows
- 19 T. Chong
- 42 S. Peck
- 44 J. Riedewald
- 11 R. Donovan
- 9 T. Cannon
- 22 B. Brereton
Substitutes
- 7 A. Devine
- 44 B. Potts
- 11 T. Small
- 6 L. Lindsay
- 21 L. Nicholls
- 10 C. Lang
- 37 D. Burgzorg
- 12 C. Wiley
- 32 E. Nolan
- 2 M. Doherty
- 10 J. Ayew
- 15 L. Kitching
- 30 R. Norrington-Davies
- 4 O. Arblaster
- 3 S. McCallum
- 23 T. Campbell
- 38 F. Seriki
- 33 J. Baptiste
- 27 K. Phillips
- 31 T. Betts
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →