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Birmingham City – Millwall3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Birmingham City
1.64
Total xG
2.75
Millwall
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Birmingham City | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.00 | |
| August Priske not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Jenson Metcalfe on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Birmingham City have 4 wins from their last 5 matches, Millwall have 2 wins
- Home/Away: Birmingham City score 2.33 goals per match at home this season, Millwall concede 2 per match away
Risks
- Defense: Birmingham City allowed 1.34 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 0.4 goals per match
- Possession: Millwall recorded 56.2% possession per match in their last 5 matches, Birmingham City 53.6%
All probabilities
Result
Birmingham City48%
Draw28%
Millwall24%
Double chance
Birmingham City or draw76%
Millwall or draw52%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.64 : 1.12, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Millwall: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Birmingham City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Demarai Gray: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Millwall: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Birmingham City 4-2-3-1 · Millwall 4-4-2
Birmingham City
- 21 R. Allsop
- 2 E. Laird
- 5 P. Neumann
- 4 C. Klarer
- 20 A. Cochrane
- 24 T. Iwata
- 14 J. Solis Romero
- 16 P. Roberts
- 28 J. Stansfield
- 17 L. Millar
- 18 M. Bird
Millwall
- 15 M. Crocombe
- 2 J. Osei-Tutu
- 6 C. Taylor
- 5 J. Cooper
- 3 Z. Norton Sturge
- 22 K. Lisbie
- 10 C. Neghli
- 49 D. Mazou-Sacko
- 25 L. Cundle
- 13 L. Dykes
- 9 M. Ivanović
Substitutes
- 7 C. Vicente Robles
- 19 T. Gardner-Hickman
- 26 B. Osayi-Samuel
- 33 M. Ducksch
- 3 L. Buchanan
- 11 S. Wright
- 10 D. Gray
- 32 L. Vásquez
- 30 B. Mayo
- 11 R. Esse
- 12 E. Baggott
- 14 J. Metcalfe
- 23 D. Batth
- 17 M. Sykes
- 4 T. Crama
- 41 G. Evans
- 16 D. Kelly
- 19 J. Coburn
- 7 T. Arconte
- 35 Y. Issoufou
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