Match report →
Watford – Lincoln City1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Watford
1.39
Total xG
2.49
Lincoln City
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Watford | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.57 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| Luca Kjerrumgaard on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 94% available) | ||
| Reeco Hackett on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 89% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Watford averages 1.33 goals per match at home in the league this season, Lincoln City averages 1 away
- Shots on target: Watford averages 5 shots on target per match in the last 5 games, Lincoln City averages 3.8 per match
Risks
- Table: Lincoln City is 16th in the league with 15 points in 13 matches, Watford is 21st with 11 points
- Form: Watford lost 4 of its last 5 matches in the league
All probabilities
Result
Watford42%
Draw30%
Lincoln City28%
Double chance
Watford or draw72%
Lincoln City or draw58%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.39 : 1.10, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
10%
1:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Watford: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Watford: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Watford 4-2-3-1 · Lincoln City 3-4-2-1
Watford
- 1 F. Ravaglia
- 23 H. Traorè
- 6 M. Pollock
- 4 K. Keben
- 16 M. Bola
- 39 E. Kayembe
- 5 H. Kyprianou
- 7 O. Maamma
- 17 I. Bravo Solanilla
- 45 S. Mavididi
- 10 M. Boadu
Lincoln City
- 1 G. Wickens
- 25 D. Elerewe
- 15 S. Bradley
- 4 A. Coubis
- 33 D. Oyegoke
- 26 Y. Konak
- 8 T. Bayliss
- 20 C. Elder
- 27 C. Ogbene
- 18 B. House
- 34 F. Draper
Substitutes
- 15 K. Diatta
- 26 D. Bachmann
- 20 M. Doumbia
- 9 L. Kjerrumgaard
- 11 R. Vata
- 29 B. Mlacic
- 33 J. Zemura
- 22 M. Payero
- 21 A. Nabizada
- 6 R. Towler
- 22 T. Hamer
- 3 A. Reach
- 17 R. Street
- 24 I. Varfolomeev
- 16 D. Jeffries
- 7 R. Hackett-Fairchild
- 19 I. Olaofe
- 46 J. Gauci
- 11 M. Riis Ladefoged
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →