Match report →
Blackburn Rovers – Stoke City1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Blackburn Rovers
1.16
Total xG
2.38
Stoke City
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Blackburn Rovers | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.25 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Ryoya Morishita not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ethan Galbraith on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Eric-Junior Bocat not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lamine Cissé not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 58% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Blackburn Rovers with 3 wins from their last 5 matches, Stoke City with 3 wins from their last 5 matches
- Attack: Blackburn Rovers scored 1.4 goals per match in their last 5 matches, Stoke City 1.4 goals per match in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Table: Stoke City rank 7th in the league this season with 23 points from 13 matches, Blackburn Rovers 13th with 18 points
- Home/Away: Blackburn Rovers scored 1.83 goals per match at home in the league this season, Stoke City 1.33 goals per match away
All probabilities
Result
Blackburn Rovers33%
Draw31%
Stoke City36%
Double chance
Blackburn Rovers or draw64%
Stoke City or draw67%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.16 : 1.22, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
11%
0:1
10%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Stoke City: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Blackburn Rovers: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Stoke City: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Blackburn Rovers with Andri Gudjohnsen starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (12/11 games, last 30)
- Blackburn Rovers: 35% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 17)
Lineups
Blackburn Rovers 4-2-3-1 · Stoke City 3-4-3
Blackburn Rovers
- 22 B. Tóth
- 2 R. Alebiousu
- 17 H. Carter
- 15 S. McLoughlin
- 3 H. Pickering
- 8 S. Morsy
- 31 K. Montgomery
- 11 J. Fevrier
- 10 T. Cantwell
- 21 O. Afolayan
- 9 A. Guojohnsen
Stoke City
- 1 V. Johansson
- 16 B. Wilmot
- 40 M. Talovierov
- 5 L. Graham
- 2 B. Johnson
- 7 J. McGlynn
- 27 D. Soumaré
- 21 L. Bombino
- 42 M. Manhoef
- 9 R. Boženík
- 13 J. Devenny
Substitutes
- 14 D. De Neve
- 30 J. Garrett
- 4 Y. Oliveira Ribeiro
- 23 Y. Ohashi
- 7 A. Kargbo
- 1 A. Pears
- 24 M. Baradji
- 16 S. Wharton
- 27 G. Beyuku Bowutankoyi
- 6 T. Atcheson
- 24 J. Griffiths
- 8 E. William Galbraith
- 6 S. Ingelsson
- 15 G. Hirst
- 10 J. Bae
- 19 T. Rigo
- 22 J. Tchamadeu
- 18 M. Bosun Lawal
- 4 B. Pearson
- 43 F. Anderson
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