DumbleScore
Match report →
Championship11/03/2026, 07:45 PM

Queens Park Rangers – Burnley1 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Queens Park Rangers
1.65
Total xG
2.72
Burnley
1.08
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorQueens Park RangersBurnley
Attack strength (1.47x league average)+0.68
High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)+0.43+0.43
Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean−0.38
Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average)+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)+0.18
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)+0.18
Standings disadvantage (pos 22 vs 9, 13 places gap)−0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)+0.11
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 22, 13 places gap)+0.10
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)+0.10
Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean+0.03
Attack strength (1.21x league average)−0.02
Kwame Poku on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Jacob Bruun Larsen not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Strong home record (2.4 vs 1.6 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Home/Away: Queens Park Rangers score 2.17 goals per match at home, while Burnley concede 2.5 per match away
  • Table: Queens Park Rangers are 9th with 20 points after 13 matches, while Burnley sit 22nd with 9 points

Risks

  • Shots: Burnley averaged 15.2 shots per match over the last 5 games, compared to 10.4 per match for Queens Park Rangers
  • Away: Burnley scored 1.5 goals per match away in the league, compared to 1.14 per match at home

All probabilities

Result
Queens Park Rangers49%
Draw28%
Burnley23%
Double chance
Queens Park Rangers or draw77%
Burnley or draw51%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%

xG score

1:1
From xG 1.64 : 1.08, rounded up only from .913% probability

Other likely scores

2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Burnley: dropped a lead in 7 of 8 games (18 points lost)
  2. Burnley: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
  3. Burnley: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 12 games)
  4. Burnley: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 15)

Lineups

Queens Park Rangers 4-4-2 · Burnley 4-2-3-1

Queens Park Rangers
  • 1 P. Charles
  • 2 K. Adamson
  • 3 J. Dunne
  • 5 R. Edwards
  • 19 D. Cirkin
  • 20 H. Vale
  • 40 J. Varane
  • 18 G. Kamara
  • 14 K. Saito
  • 22 R. Kone
  • 11 P. Smyth
Burnley
  • 37 G. Coudert
  • 2 K. Walker
  • 18 H. Ekdal
  • 44 I. dos Santos de Paulo
  • 23 L. Pires Silva
  • 29 J. Laurent
  • 5 R. Hatate
  • 17 A. Hountondji
  • 10 M. Edwards
  • 19 L. Ramazani
  • 9 J. Vardy
Substitutes
  • 25 J. Obikwu
  • 10 I. Chair
  • 23 I. Alemayehu Mulugeta
  • 26 R. Kolli
  • 4 L. Morrison
  • 7 K. Dembélé
  • 17 K. Poku
  • 12 B. Kemper
  • 13 C. Ward
  • 8 U. Raghouber
  • 24 J. Cullen
  • 14 C. Roberts
  • 1 M. Weiß
  • 22 O. Sonne
  • 21 A. Ramsey
  • 15 A. Ahmedhodzic
  • 34 J. Banel
  • 3 M. Alleyne

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.

Create Account →