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Derby County – Norwich City0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Derby County
1.17
Total xG
2.65
Norwich City
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Derby County | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.74 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.32 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 23 vs 15, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 15 vs 23, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Mohammed Fuseini on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Oscar Schwartau on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Norwich is 15th in the league this season with 15 points from 13 games, Derby County is 23rd with 7 points
- Form: Derby County are winless in their last 5 matches with 0.8 goals per game, Norwich won 2 games
- Attack: Norwich average 1.77 goals per game in the league this season, Derby County concede 1.92 per game
Risks
- Squad: Norwich without P. Mattsson, in the starting XI in 4 of the last 5 matches
- Away: Norwich concede 2 goals per game away in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Derby County28%
Draw29%
Norwich City43%
Double chance
Derby County or draw57%
Norwich City or draw72%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.16 : 1.49, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Norwich City: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Derby County: 4 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Derby County: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Norwich City: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 22)
Lineups
Derby County 4-4-2 · Norwich City 4-2-3-1
Derby County
- 1 J. Widell Zetterström
- 43 I. Gordon
- 24 R. Nyambe
- 28 D. Sanderson
- 22 M. Johnston
- 11 S. Szmodics
- 20 A. Mowatt
- 29 O. Fraulo
- 8 B. Clark
- 19 H. Meister
- 9 C. Morris
Norwich City
- 32 D. Grimshaw
- 3 J. Stacey
- 15 R. McConville
- 6 H. Darling
- 13 D. Yongwa Ngameni
- 26 S. Field
- 16 J. Wright
- 11 A. Brookes
- 25 E. Maghoma
- 49 A. Musaba
- 30 M. Kvistgaarden
Substitutes
- 26 R. Hedges
- 14 J. Robinson
- 25 S. Duffy
- 10 R. Brewster
- 27 L. Travis
- 15 L. Salvesen
- 33 C. Taylor
- 31 J. Vickers
- 16 M. Fuseini
- 13 F. Bilbija
- 17 A. Crnac
- 14 B. Chrisene
- 29 O. Schwartau
- 12 L. Mahovo
- 24 J. Makama
- 35 K. Fisher
- 33 J. Cordoba Chambers
- 20 A. Slimane
- 1 V. Kovačević
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