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Wrexham – Middlesbrough2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Wrexham
1.10
Total xG
2.81
Middlesbrough
1.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Wrexham | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −1.02 | |
| Attack strength (1.69x league average) | +0.76 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.33 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.30 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.30 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 1, 18 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 19, 18 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.07 | |
| Will Lankshear on the bench (13 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Riley McGree on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 42% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Middlesbrough sits 1st in the league with 28 points, while Wrexham is 19th with 14 points
- Form: Middlesbrough earned 4 wins in their last 5 games, while Wrexham recorded 1 win in their last 5 games
- Shots: Middlesbrough averaged 9 shots on target per game in their last 5 games, compared to 3.2 shots on target per game for Wrexham
Risks
- Home: Wrexham scores 1.67 goals per game at home in the league, while Middlesbrough concedes 1.33 goals per game away
All probabilities
Result
Wrexham23%
Draw27%
Middlesbrough50%
Double chance
Wrexham or draw50%
Middlesbrough or draw77%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.10 : 1.70, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
1:3
6%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Middlesbrough: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Middlesbrough: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Middlesbrough with Sebastian Berhalter starting: 2.3 goals/game, without him: 1.4 (10/17 games, last 30)
Lineups
Wrexham 3-5-1-1 · Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
Wrexham
- 22 A. Patterson
- 4 M. Cleworth
- 6 J. Worrall
- 2 C. Doyle
- 12 I. Kabore
- 15 G. Dobson
- 8 B. Whiteman
- 14 G. Thomason
- 3 J. Ekomie
- 27 L. O'Brien
- 19 K. Moore
Middlesbrough
- 1 R. Vítek
- 12 L. Ayling
- 4 A. Phillips
- 29 A. Malanda
- 2 C. Brittain
- 10 A. Morris
- 6 S. Berhalter
- 30 V. Borges dos Santos Neto
- 11 A. Cozier-Duberry
- 9 T. Conway
- 22 K. Joseph
Substitutes
- 11 B. Cadamarteri
- 47 R. Longman
- 18 B. Sheaf
- 5 D. Hyam
- 21 D. Ward
- 20 O. Rathbone
- 37 M. James
- 28 S. Smith
- 30 D. Imray
- 26 Z. Vyner
- 3 S. Byram
- 14 M. Peart-Harris
- 19 L. Castledine
- 7 W. Lankshear
- 13 D. Strelec
- 8 R. McGree
- 31 S. Brynn
- 18 C. Barron
- 16 J. Sarmiento
- 17 M. Arfsten
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