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Charlton Athletic – Bolton Wanderers0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Charlton Athletic
1.19
Total xG
2.52
Bolton Wanderers
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Charlton Athletic | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.26 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| Thierry Gale on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gaizka Larrazabal on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Away form: Bolton average 1.5 goals per game away in the league this season, Charlton 0.83 at home
- Form: Charlton are winless in their last 5 matches with 2 draws and 3 losses
Risks
- Defence: Charlton have conceded 0.83 goals per game at home in the league this season, Bolton 1.83 per game away
- Table: Both teams are level on 14 points after 13 matches in the league this season in 20th and 19th place
All probabilities
Result
Charlton Athletic32%
Draw30%
Bolton Wanderers38%
Double chance
Charlton Athletic or draw62%
Bolton Wanderers or draw68%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.19 : 1.33, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bolton Wanderers: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Charlton Athletic 4-2-3-1 · Bolton Wanderers 4-2-3-1
Charlton Athletic
- 25 W. Mannion
- 20 D. McNamara
- 5 L. Jones
- 12 B. Koumetio
- 17 A. Bell
- 15 N. Chalobah
- 6 C. Coventry
- 8 H. Knibbs
- 9 K. Ahearne-Grant
- 7 T. Campbell
- 23 C. Kelman
Bolton Wanderers
- 1 J. Bonham
- 27 L. Stephenson
- 3 C. Forino-Joseph
- 14 A. Famewo
- 25 M. Conway
- 4 X. Simons
- 8 J. Sheehan
- 16 S. Iling
- 17 A. Ito
- 35 M. Lott
- 10 S. Dalby
Substitutes
- 34 O. Skipp
- 26 J. Rankin-Costello
- 24 M. Godden
- 11 M. Leaburn
- 2 K. Ramsey
- 14 S. Carey
- 19 M. Alli
- 44 T. Bindon
- 13 A. Okonkwo
- 18 I. Mesík
- 9 T. Bair
- 23 D. Harrington
- 5 L. Brunt
- 6 B. Davies
- 11 T. Gale
- 7 K. Dong
- 20 R. da Rocha Rodrigues
- 22 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
- 12 D. Watson
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