Match report →
Bristol City – Wolverhampton Wanderers1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Bristol City
1.05
Total xG
2.60
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.55
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bristol City | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.76 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.41 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.25 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Dominic Ballard on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jordan James not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Wolverhampton scores 1.67 goals per game away in the league, Bristol City 0.5 per game at home
- Form: Wolverhampton has 3 wins from their last 5 matches, Bristol City 1 win in that period
- Table: Wolverhampton is 7th in the league with 24 points from 13 games, Bristol City is 15th with 18 points
Risks
- Away: Wolverhampton conceded 1.5 goals per game away in the league this season in 6 matches
All probabilities
Result
Bristol City24%
Draw29%
Wolverhampton Wanderers47%
Double chance
Bristol City or draw53%
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw76%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.05 : 1.55, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers with Fer López starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (11/18 games, last 30)
- Bristol City: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Bolton Wanderers: 2 goals (84', 90+3')
- Bristol City: 5 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Bristol City 4-2-3-1 · Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-2-3-1
Bristol City
- 40 B. Collins
- 19 G. Tanner
- 15 L. McNally
- 2 L. Eissat
- 3 C. Pring
- 12 J. Knight
- 8 J. Williams
- 21 R. Cardines
- 11 S. Bell
- 10 S. Twine
- 9 L. Tolaj
Wolverhampton Wanderers
- 1 J. Malheiro de Sá
- 2 K. Trippier
- 15 Y. Mosquera
- 37 L. Krejčí
- 3 H. Bueno
- 7 A. Trindade da Costa Neto
- 5 M. Munetsi
- 28 F. López González
- 27 J. Bellegarde
- 19 R. Said Ahamada
- 10 A. Armstrong
Substitutes
- 17 J. Wallace
- 23 D. Ballard
- 6 B. De Keersmaecker
- 1 S. Tickle
- 5 R. Atkinson
- 7 Y. Hirakawa
- 4 A. Randell
- 14 T. Horvat
- 20 S. Greenwood
- 38 J. Tchatchoua
- 36 M. Mané
- 21 R. Gomes
- 24 T. Gomes
- 23 T. Chirewa
- 20 T. Doyle
- 13 J. Neves Virginia
- 34 N. Djiga
- 14 S. Neave
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