Match report →
Cardiff City – West Ham United3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Cardiff City
1.65
Total xG
3.32
West Ham United
1.67
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cardiff City | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.63x league average) | +0.88 | |
| Attack strength (1.54x league average) | +0.51 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.46 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 8, 10 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 18, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Cian Ashford on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Mohamadou Kanté on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Kyle Walker-Peters on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Pablo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.6 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attack: West Ham averages 2.5 goals per away game in the league this season, Cardiff 2.17 at home
- Form: Cardiff and West Ham both recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 5 games
- Shots: West Ham averaged 7.4 shots on target per game in recent matches, Cardiff 5.4 per game
Risks
- Defense: Cardiff concedes 1 goal per home game in the league, West Ham 1.17 per away game
- Table: West Ham is 8th in the league with 22 points, while Cardiff is 18th with 14 points
All probabilities
Result
Cardiff City37%
Draw26%
West Ham United38%
Double chance
Cardiff City or draw62%
West Ham United or draw63%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.65 : 1.67, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- West Ham United with Manor Solomon starting: 2.6 goals/game, without him: 1.3 (11/17 games, last 30)
- Cardiff City: 72% of all goals in the first half (13 of 18, last 12 games)
- West Ham United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Cardiff City: 39% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 18)
- Mohamadou Kanté: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Cardiff City 4-1-4-1 · West Ham United 4-4-1-1
Cardiff City
- 1 N. Trott
- 38 P. Ng
- 2 W. Fish
- 3 J. Bagan
- 23 C. Scanlon
- 18 A. Robertson
- 11 O. Tanner
- 8 J. Moylan
- 10 R. Colwill
- 16 C. Willock
- 9 Y. Salech
West Ham United
- 1 M. Hermansen
- 34 J. Veltman
- 15 K. Mavropanos
- 3 M. Kilman
- 5 F. Rodrigues
- 20 J. Bowen
- 7 A. Engels
- 27 S. Magassa
- 10 M. Solomon
- 14 D. Mukasa
- 11 V. Castellanos Giménez
Substitutes
- 30 H. Tyrer
- 44 R. Kpakio
- 45 C. Ashford
- 27 J. Colwill
- 14 D. Turnbull
- 52 T. Perret
- 33 R. Tankiewicz
- 43 P. Ujobolo Moreno
- 50 C. Holt
- 9 J. Piroe
- 2 K. Walker-Peters
- 23 A. Areola
- 30 O. Scarles
- 28 T. Souček
- 35 E. Austbö
- 58 A. Golambeckis
- 63 E. Mayers
- 17 M. Kanté
- 61 L. Orford
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