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West Bromwich Albion – Southampton1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
West Bromwich Albion
1.42
Total xG
2.73
Southampton
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | West Bromwich Albion | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| Leo Scienza not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lewis Dobbin on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Cameron Bragg on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 94% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: West Bromwich Albion sit 4th with 24 points from 13 games, Southampton are 5th with 23 points
- Possession: West Bromwich Albion averaged 58.4% possession over their last 5 games, Southampton 52.6%
Risks
- Form: Southampton are unbeaten in their last 5 games with 4 wins and 1 draw, West Bromwich Albion took 3 wins
- Attack: Southampton scored 2.15 goals per game in the league this season, West Bromwich Albion 1.46 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
West Bromwich Albion38%
Draw29%
Southampton33%
Double chance
West Bromwich Albion or draw67%
Southampton or draw62%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.42 : 1.31, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Southampton: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- West Bromwich Albion with Jimmy Morgan starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 1 (10/17 games, last 30)
- West Bromwich Albion: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
West Bromwich Albion 4-4-2 · Southampton 4-2-3-1
West Bromwich Albion
- 1 M. O’Leary
- 18 B. Pereira
- 2 C. Mepham
- 6 G. Campbell
- 4 C. Styles
- 20 R. Nzingoula
- 8 J. Molumby
- 17 O. Diakite
- 21 I. Price
- 11 J. Morgan
- 7 F. Horn Myhre
Southampton
- 1 D. Peretz
- 14 J. Bree
- 5 J. Stephens
- 13 K. Schlotterbeck
- 3 R. Manning
- 30 J. Ward-Prowse
- 4 F. Downes
- 27 K. Matsuki
- 10 F. Azaz
- 23 S. Edozie
- 28 D. Mubama
Substitutes
- 19 A. Heggebø
- 23 T. Bany
- 3 N. Phillips
- 29 H. Whitwell
- 22 C. Townsend
- 13 M. Ingram
- 9 B. Stewart
- 35 M. Crowther
- 6 Z. Abbott
- 11 L. Dobbin
- 18 T. Fellows
- 25 G. Long
- 15 N. Wood-Gordon
- 34 Welington
- 40 P. Ehibhatioman
- 26 C. Bragg
- 53 B. Williams
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