Match report →
Portsmouth – Stoke City1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Portsmouth
1.40
Total xG
2.52
Stoke City
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portsmouth | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 4, 6 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 10, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Marko Milovanović not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Ryan Kavuma-McQueen on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Zak Swanson on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 97% available) | ||
| Justin Devenny on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Lamine Cissé not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 95% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Portsmouth average 1.86 goals per game at home in the league this season, Stoke City concede 1.57 per game away
- Form: Portsmouth remained undefeated in their last 5 matches with 3 wins and 2 draws, Stoke City suffered 1 loss
Risks
- Table: Stoke City sit 4th in the league with 26 points from 14 matches, Portsmouth are 10th with 22 points
- xG: Portsmouth generated 0.84 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1.4 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Portsmouth42%
Draw30%
Stoke City29%
Double chance
Portsmouth or draw71%
Stoke City or draw58%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.40 : 1.12, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
0:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Stoke City: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Portsmouth: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Swansea City: 2 goals (90+2', 90+8')
- Stoke City: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Portsmouth: 5 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Stoke City: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Portsmouth 4-2-3-1 · Stoke City 3-4-3
Portsmouth
- 1 N. Schmid
- 24 T. Devlin
- 5 R. Poole
- 55 M. Dia
- 16 J. Meghoma
- 38 E. Adams
- 7 M. Pack
- 10 A. Segečić
- 27 O. Bailey
- 11 A. Kamara
- 17 T. Shade
Stoke City
- 1 V. Johansson
- 16 B. Wilmot
- 18 M. Bosun Lawal
- 5 L. Graham
- 22 J. Tchamadeu
- 27 D. Soumaré
- 8 E. William Galbraith
- 2 B. Johnson
- 7 J. McGlynn
- 9 R. Boženík
- 42 M. Manhoef
Substitutes
- 20 T. Waddingham
- 15 F. Umeh
- 23 J. Murphy
- 22 Z. Swanson
- 6 C. Shaughnessy
- 19 R. Shein
- 25 R. Kavuma-McQueen
- 31 D. Bielica
- 32 E. Kenny
- 13 J. Devenny
- 24 J. Griffiths
- 6 S. Ingelsson
- 15 G. Hirst
- 10 J. Bae
- 19 T. Rigo
- 20 S. Gallagher
- 40 M. Talovierov
- 21 L. Bombino
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