Match report →
Charlton Athletic – Sheffield United2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Charlton Athletic
0.96
Total xG
2.42
Sheffield United
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Charlton Athletic | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.75 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.21 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 21 vs 9, 12 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 21, 12 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Lloyd Jones on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Karlan Grant on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 73% available) | ||
| Tom Cannon on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 98% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Sheffield United have 3 wins from their last 5 matches, while Charlton Athletic are winless in 5 matches
- Shots: Sheffield United averaged 5 shots on target per match over their last 5 games, Charlton Athletic 2.6 per match
- Table: Sheffield United sit 9th in the league after 14 matches, Charlton Athletic are 21st
Risks
- Home/Away: Charlton Athletic concede 0.86 goals per match at home in the league, Sheffield United 1.43 per match away
All probabilities
Result
Charlton Athletic23%
Draw30%
Sheffield United47%
Double chance
Charlton Athletic or draw53%
Sheffield United or draw77%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:1
From xG 0.96 : 1.47, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
0:1
11%
0:0
10%
0:2
10%
1:2
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Charlton Athletic: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Sheffield United: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Charlton Athletic 4-1-4-1 · Sheffield United 4-4-2
Charlton Athletic
- 25 W. Mannion
- 20 D. McNamara
- 44 T. Bindon
- 12 B. Koumetio
- 17 A. Bell
- 6 C. Coventry
- 19 M. Alli
- 32 A. Mwamba
- 26 J. Rankin-Costello
- 7 T. Campbell
- 23 C. Kelman
Sheffield United
- 1 M. Cooper
- 8 H. Choudhury
- 5 J. Tanganga
- 15 L. Kitching
- 14 H. Burrows
- 19 T. Chong
- 42 S. Peck
- 27 K. Phillips
- 11 R. Donovan
- 10 J. Ayew
- 22 B. Brereton
Substitutes
- 34 O. Skipp
- 8 H. Knibbs
- 3 J. Edwards
- 24 M. Godden
- 14 S. Carey
- 13 A. Okonkwo
- 35 R. Junior Nkeng
- 18 I. Mesík
- 62 J. Michael Hebert
- 44 J. Riedewald
- 25 M. McGuinness
- 17 A. Davies
- 9 T. Cannon
- 4 O. Arblaster
- 3 S. McCallum
- 23 T. Campbell
- 38 F. Seriki
- 33 J. Baptiste
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