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Cardiff City – Burnley5 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Cardiff City
2.13
Total xG
3.28
Burnley
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cardiff City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.47x league average) | +0.86 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.43 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Yousef Salech on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jamie Vardy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Cardiff City score 2.29 goals per game at home in the league this season, Burnley concede 2.29 per game away
- Form: Cardiff City have 2 wins from their last 5 games, Burnley are winless in their last 5 games
- Shots on target: Cardiff City averaged 6 shots on target per game in their last 5 games, Burnley 3.4 per game
Risks
- Rest: Cardiff City with 3 days since their last match
- Away: Burnley score 1.43 goals per game away in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Cardiff City58%
Draw23%
Burnley19%
Double chance
Cardiff City or draw81%
Burnley or draw42%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.12 : 1.16, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
5:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Burnley: dropped a lead in 7 of 8 games (17 points lost)
- Cardiff City: 74% of all goals in the first half (14 of 19, last 12 games)
- Cardiff City: 42% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 19)
- Burnley: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Burnley: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 12 games)
- Burnley: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 15)
Lineups
Cardiff City 4-2-3-1 · Burnley 4-2-3-1
Cardiff City
- 1 N. Trott
- 38 P. Ng
- 2 W. Fish
- 5 K. Bielik
- 3 J. Bagan
- 18 A. Robertson
- 11 O. Tanner
- 10 R. Colwill
- 45 C. Ashford
- 16 C. Willock
- 8 J. Moylan
Burnley
- 37 G. Coudert
- 2 K. Walker
- 18 H. Ekdal
- 44 I. dos Santos de Paulo
- 23 L. Pires Silva
- 29 J. Laurent
- 5 R. Hatate
- 19 L. Ramazani
- 10 M. Edwards
- 34 J. Banel
- 17 A. Hountondji
Substitutes
- 30 H. Tyrer
- 44 R. Kpakio
- 9 Y. Salech
- 27 J. Colwill
- 14 D. Turnbull
- 23 C. Scanlon
- 52 T. Perret
- 33 R. Tankiewicz
- 50 C. Holt
- 8 U. Raghouber
- 24 J. Cullen
- 14 C. Roberts
- 11 M. Amdouni
- 1 M. Weiß
- 22 O. Sonne
- 21 A. Ramsey
- 3 M. Alleyne
- 9 J. Vardy
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