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Derby County – Bolton Wanderers3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Derby County
1.31
Total xG
2.63
Bolton Wanderers
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Derby County | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.49 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.20 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 23 vs 17, 6 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 17 vs 23, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Sammie Szmodics not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Atsuki Ito on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Possession: Derby County averaged 46.6% possession in their last 5 matches, Bolton Wanderers 44.4%
- Defense: Derby County conceded 2.07 goals per match in the league this season, Bolton Wanderers 1.86 per match
- Attack: Derby County averaged 3.8 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Bolton Wanderers 4.4 per match
Risks
- Table: Bolton Wanderers sit 17th in the league with 17 points, Derby County are 23rd with 7 points
- Form: Bolton Wanderers recorded 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Derby County had 0 wins in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Derby County35%
Draw29%
Bolton Wanderers35%
Double chance
Derby County or draw65%
Bolton Wanderers or draw65%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.31 : 1.32, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Derby County: 4 of 8 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Derby County: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Derby County with Carlton Morris starting: 1.3 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (18/5 games, last 30)
Lineups
Derby County 4-2-3-1 · Bolton Wanderers 4-2-3-1
Derby County
- 1 J. Widell Zetterström
- 24 R. Nyambe
- 25 S. Duffy
- 28 D. Sanderson
- 14 J. Robinson
- 27 L. Travis
- 4 D. Ozoh
- 10 R. Brewster
- 8 B. Clark
- 16 M. Fuseini
- 9 C. Morris
Bolton Wanderers
- 1 J. Bonham
- 27 L. Stephenson
- 3 C. Forino-Joseph
- 14 A. Famewo
- 25 M. Conway
- 4 X. Simons
- 8 J. Sheehan
- 22 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
- 20 R. da Rocha Rodrigues
- 11 T. Gale
- 10 S. Dalby
Substitutes
- 20 A. Mowatt
- 22 M. Johnston
- 15 L. Salvesen
- 29 O. Fraulo
- 33 C. Taylor
- 31 J. Vickers
- 43 I. Gordon
- 45 R. Canoville
- 13 F. Bilbija
- 9 T. Bair
- 16 S. Iling
- 23 D. Harrington
- 5 L. Brunt
- 6 B. Davies
- 7 K. Dong
- 17 A. Ito
- 12 D. Watson
- 35 M. Lott
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