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West Bromwich Albion – Millwall3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
West Bromwich Albion
1.60
Total xG
2.70
Millwall
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | West Bromwich Albion | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| Felix Horn Myhre on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lyndon Dykes on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: West Bromwich Albion are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), Millwall have 1 win and 3 losses
- Home/Away: Millwall concede 2.14 goals per match away in the league this season, West Bromwich Albion 1.0 per match at home
- Table: West Bromwich Albion sit 6th in the league after 14 matches with 25 points, Millwall are 13th with 18 points
Risks
- Head-to-head: West Bromwich Albion are winless in their last 4 matches against Millwall (3 draws, 1 loss)
- Attack: Millwall score 1.64 goals per match in the league this season, West Bromwich Albion 1.43 per match
All probabilities
Result
West Bromwich Albion48%
Draw28%
Millwall24%
Double chance
West Bromwich Albion or draw76%
Millwall or draw52%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.60 : 1.09, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Millwall: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Millwall: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
- West Bromwich Albion: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
West Bromwich Albion 4-4-2 · Millwall 4-2-3-1
West Bromwich Albion
- 1 M. O’Leary
- 18 B. Pereira
- 2 C. Mepham
- 3 N. Phillips
- 4 C. Styles
- 20 R. Nzingoula
- 8 J. Molumby
- 17 O. Diakite
- 21 I. Price
- 19 A. Heggebø
- 11 J. Morgan
Millwall
- 15 M. Crocombe
- 2 J. Osei-Tutu
- 6 C. Taylor
- 5 J. Cooper
- 3 Z. Norton Sturge
- 14 J. Metcalfe
- 49 D. Mazou-Sacko
- 10 C. Neghli
- 25 L. Cundle
- 22 K. Lisbie
- 19 J. Coburn
Substitutes
- 23 T. Bany
- 29 H. Whitwell
- 22 C. Townsend
- 13 M. Ingram
- 7 F. Horn Myhre
- 26 K. Tunde Ruiz
- 9 B. Stewart
- 31 A. Maughan
- 35 M. Crowther
- 11 R. Esse
- 13 L. Dykes
- 12 E. Baggott
- 17 M. Sykes
- 45 A. Doughty
- 9 M. Ivanović
- 41 G. Evans
- 16 D. Kelly
- 7 T. Arconte
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