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Bristol City – Norwich City0 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Bristol City
1.26
Total xG
2.66
Norwich City
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bristol City | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.89 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.42 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.25 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | −0.01 | |
| Dominic Ballard on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Oscar Schwartau on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Norwich City won 3 of their last 5 matches, Bristol City won 1
- Home/Away: Norwich City averages 2 goals per game away in the league this season, Bristol City 0.57 goals per game at home
Risks
- Head-to-head: Bristol City won 3 of the 4 previous head-to-head meetings, Norwich City 1
All probabilities
Result
Bristol City32%
Draw29%
Norwich City38%
Double chance
Bristol City or draw62%
Norwich City or draw68%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.26 : 1.40, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
0:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Norwich City: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Bristol City: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Bolton Wanderers: 2 goals (84', 90+3')
- Norwich City with Jacob Wright starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1 (10/7 games, last 30)
- Norwich City: 31% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (8 of 26)
- Norwich City: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Bristol City 4-2-3-1 · Norwich City 4-2-3-1
Bristol City
- 40 B. Collins
- 19 G. Tanner
- 16 R. Dickie
- 2 L. Eissat
- 3 C. Pring
- 8 J. Williams
- 4 A. Randell
- 21 R. Cardines
- 12 J. Knight
- 10 S. Twine
- 9 L. Tolaj
Norwich City
- 32 D. Grimshaw
- 3 J. Stacey
- 15 R. McConville
- 6 H. Darling
- 14 B. Chrisene
- 26 S. Field
- 16 J. Wright
- 11 A. Brookes
- 25 E. Maghoma
- 49 A. Musaba
- 30 M. Kvistgaarden
Substitutes
- 17 J. Wallace
- 23 D. Ballard
- 45 E. Adebayo
- 6 B. De Keersmaecker
- 1 S. Tickle
- 11 S. Bell
- 5 R. Atkinson
- 7 Y. Hirakawa
- 14 T. Horvat
- 13 D. Yongwa Ngameni
- 7 P. Mattsson
- 29 O. Schwartau
- 12 L. Mahovo
- 24 J. Makama
- 35 K. Fisher
- 33 J. Cordoba Chambers
- 23 K. McLean
- 1 V. Kovačević
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