DumbleScore
Match report →
Championship11/07/2026, 03:00 PM

Queens Park Rangers – Lincoln City2 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Queens Park Rangers
1.69
Total xG
2.58
Lincoln City
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorQueens Park RangersLincoln City
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)+0.50
High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)+0.44+0.44
Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean+0.30
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)+0.19
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)+0.19
Attack strength (1.43x league average)+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)+0.10
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)+0.10
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)+0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 11, 8 places gap)−0.08
Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean−0.07
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 19, 8 places gap)+0.07
Ben House not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Andrei Coubiș on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.6 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Table: Queens Park Rangers rank 11th in the league with 21 points from 14 games, Lincoln City are 19th with 15 points
  • Home/Away: Queens Park Rangers scored 2 goals per game at home in the league this season, Lincoln City 0.86 away
  • Shots: Queens Park Rangers averaged 4.6 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Lincoln City 3.4 per game

Risks

  • Away: Lincoln City conceded 1.14 goals per game away in the league this season, compared to 1.71 overall
  • Form: Queens Park Rangers lost 2 of their last 5 matches in the league

All probabilities

Result
Queens Park Rangers55%
Draw27%
Lincoln City18%
Double chance
Queens Park Rangers or draw82%
Lincoln City or draw45%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%

xG score

1:0
From xG 1.68 : 0.89, rounded up only from .911% probability

Other likely scores

1:1
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
5%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Lincoln City: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)

Lineups

Queens Park Rangers 4-2-3-1 · Lincoln City 4-4-2

Queens Park Rangers
  • 1 P. Charles
  • 2 K. Adamson
  • 3 J. Dunne
  • 5 R. Edwards
  • 12 B. Kemper
  • 40 J. Varane
  • 18 G. Kamara
  • 17 K. Poku
  • 20 H. Vale
  • 11 P. Smyth
  • 22 R. Kone
Lincoln City
  • 1 G. Wickens
  • 33 D. Oyegoke
  • 25 D. Elerewe
  • 15 S. Bradley
  • 3 A. Reach
  • 7 R. Hackett-Fairchild
  • 14 C. McGrandles
  • 26 Y. Konak
  • 16 D. Jeffries
  • 34 F. Draper
  • 11 M. Riis Ladefoged
Substitutes
  • 19 D. Cirkin
  • 25 J. Obikwu
  • 14 K. Saito
  • 10 I. Chair
  • 6 J. Clarke-Salter
  • 26 R. Kolli
  • 4 L. Morrison
  • 7 K. Dembélé
  • 13 C. Ward
  • 6 R. Towler
  • 22 T. Hamer
  • 17 R. Street
  • 24 I. Varfolomeev
  • 8 T. Bayliss
  • 19 I. Olaofe
  • 27 C. Ogbene
  • 46 J. Gauci
  • 4 A. Coubis

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.

Create Account →