Match report →
Watford – Middlesbrough0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Watford
0.97
Total xG
2.88
Middlesbrough
1.91
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Watford | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.64x league average) | +1.07 | |
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −1.01 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.48 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.25 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 1, 19 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 20, 19 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Myron Boadu on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Will Lankshear not in squad (13 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Tommy Conway on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Luke Ayling on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 68% available) |
Key factors
- Table: Middlesbrough ranks 1st in the league with 28 points, while Watford is 20th with 14 points
- Attack: Middlesbrough scores 2.14 goals per game in the league this season, while Watford averages 0.93 per game
- Shots on target: Middlesbrough averages 8.2 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, compared to 4.2 by Watford
Risks
- Head-to-head: Watford has won 3 of the 4 previous meetings against Middlesbrough
- Rest days: Middlesbrough has had 3 days of rest since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Watford17%
Draw25%
Middlesbrough58%
Double chance
Watford or draw42%
Middlesbrough or draw83%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:2
From xG 0.97 : 1.91, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
0:2
10%
0:3
7%
1:3
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Watford: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
- Middlesbrough: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Watford: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Watford: 3 cards per game (33 yellows, 0 reds in 11 games)
- Middlesbrough with Sebastian Berhalter starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1.4 (11/16 games, last 30)
Lineups
Watford 5-3-2 · Middlesbrough 4-3-3
Watford
- 1 F. Ravaglia
- 15 K. Diatta
- 4 K. Keben
- 6 M. Pollock
- 29 B. Mlacic
- 33 J. Zemura
- 39 E. Kayembe
- 22 M. Payero
- 17 I. Bravo Solanilla
- 21 A. Nabizada
- 20 M. Doumbia
Middlesbrough
- 1 R. Vítek
- 2 C. Brittain
- 4 A. Phillips
- 29 A. Malanda
- 3 S. Byram
- 6 S. Berhalter
- 10 A. Morris
- 8 R. McGree
- 11 A. Cozier-Duberry
- 13 D. Strelec
- 16 J. Sarmiento
Substitutes
- 23 H. Traorè
- 26 D. Bachmann
- 45 S. Mavididi
- 24 S. Walker
- 16 M. Bola
- 7 O. Maamma
- 9 L. Kjerrumgaard
- 11 R. Vata
- 51 T. Akomeah
- 14 M. Peart-Harris
- 22 K. Joseph
- 19 L. Castledine
- 31 S. Brynn
- 9 T. Conway
- 12 L. Ayling
- 30 V. Borges dos Santos Neto
- 18 C. Barron
- 17 M. Arfsten
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →