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Wrexham – Wolverhampton Wanderers1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Wrexham
1.37
Total xG
2.49
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Wrexham | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −1.40 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.66 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.39 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 2, 14 places gap) | −0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 16, 14 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Wrexham scores 1.71 goals per game at home in the league, Wolverhampton concedes 1.43 away per game
- xG: Wrexham averages 1.28 xG per game in the league, the model expects 1.37 to 1.13 goals for this match
Risks
- Table: Wolverhampton ranks 2nd in the league with 27 points, Wrexham is 16th with 17 points
- Form: Wolverhampton has 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games, Wrexham has 2 wins and 3 losses
All probabilities
Result
Wrexham41%
Draw30%
Wolverhampton Wanderers29%
Double chance
Wrexham or draw71%
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw59%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.37 : 1.13, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
10%
1:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers with Fer López starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (12/17 games, last 30)
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: 6 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Wrexham: 73% of all goals in the second half (11 of 15, last 12 games)
Lineups
Wrexham 3-5-1-1 · Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-2-3-1
Wrexham
- 22 A. Patterson
- 4 M. Cleworth
- 6 J. Worrall
- 2 C. Doyle
- 12 I. Kabore
- 15 G. Dobson
- 8 B. Whiteman
- 20 O. Rathbone
- 3 J. Ekomie
- 27 L. O'Brien
- 19 K. Moore
Wolverhampton Wanderers
- 1 J. Malheiro de Sá
- 38 J. Tchatchoua
- 34 N. Djiga
- 37 L. Krejčí
- 24 T. Gomes
- 7 A. Trindade da Costa Neto
- 5 M. Munetsi
- 21 R. Gomes
- 28 F. López González
- 36 M. Mané
- 10 A. Armstrong
Substitutes
- 11 B. Cadamarteri
- 47 R. Longman
- 18 B. Sheaf
- 5 D. Hyam
- 21 D. Ward
- 14 G. Thomason
- 37 M. James
- 30 D. Imray
- 26 Z. Vyner
- 3 H. Bueno
- 27 J. Bellegarde
- 15 Y. Mosquera
- 23 T. Chirewa
- 20 T. Doyle
- 2 K. Trippier
- 13 J. Neves Virginia
- 14 S. Neave
- 19 R. Said Ahamada
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