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Preston North End – Southampton1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Preston North End
0.98
Total xG
2.81
Southampton
1.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Preston North End | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.32 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 24 vs 7, 17 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 24, 17 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Johnny Kenny not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Léo Leroy not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ryan Manning on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Southampton are 7th in the league with 24 points from 14 games, Preston North End are 24th with 5 points from 14 games
- Form: Southampton recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games, Preston North End 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses
- Shots: Southampton averaged 5 shots on target per game in their last 5 games, Preston North End 1.6 per game
Risks
- Away: Southampton scored 1.29 goals per game away in the league this season, compared to 2.86 goals per game at home
All probabilities
Result
Preston North End19%
Draw26%
Southampton56%
Double chance
Preston North End or draw44%
Southampton or draw81%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 0.98 : 1.83, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
0:2
10%
1:2
10%
0:3
6%
1:3
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Preston North End: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (10 points lost)
- Southampton: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Preston North End: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Preston North End 3-4-3 · Southampton 4-2-3-1
Preston North End
- 21 L. Nicholls
- 24 O. Offiah
- 6 L. Lindsay
- 16 A. Hughes
- 17 S. Mills
- 23 A. Moran
- 15 J. Thompson
- 3 A. Vukčević
- 7 A. Devine
- 10 C. Lang
- 11 T. Small
Southampton
- 1 D. Peretz
- 14 J. Bree
- 5 J. Stephens
- 13 K. Schlotterbeck
- 34 Welington
- 4 F. Downes
- 30 J. Ward-Prowse
- 27 K. Matsuki
- 10 F. Azaz
- 7 L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
- 11 L. Dobbin
Substitutes
- 5 G. Docherty
- 44 B. Potts
- 14 J. Storey
- 1 D. Iversen
- 37 D. Burgzorg
- 12 C. Wiley
- 9 J. Erabi
- 32 E. Nolan
- 35 I. Irwin
- 6 Z. Abbott
- 18 T. Fellows
- 2 M. Roerslev Rasmussen
- 25 G. Long
- 3 R. Manning
- 23 S. Edozie
- 28 D. Mubama
- 26 C. Bragg
- 53 B. Williams
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