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Blackburn Rovers – West Ham United2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Blackburn Rovers
1.06
Total xG
2.78
West Ham United
1.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Blackburn Rovers | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.6x league average) | +0.86 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.36 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Manor Solomon on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Pablo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: West Ham United scores 2.57 goals per game away in the league this season
- Shots: West Ham averaged 8.4 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Blackburn Rovers 2.4 per game
Risks
- Rest days: West Ham United with 3 days since their last match
- Home form: Blackburn Rovers scores 1.71 goals per game at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Blackburn Rovers22%
Draw27%
West Ham United51%
Double chance
Blackburn Rovers or draw49%
West Ham United or draw78%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.06 : 1.71, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
1:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- West Ham United with Arne Engels starting: 2.6 goals/game, without him: 1.3 (13/17 games, last 30)
- West Ham United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Blackburn Rovers: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Blackburn Rovers with Andri Gudjohnsen starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (13/11 games, last 30)
- Mohamadou Kanté: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Blackburn Rovers 4-2-3-1 · West Ham United 4-4-1-1
Blackburn Rovers
- 22 B. Tóth
- 27 G. Beyuku Bowutankoyi
- 17 H. Carter
- 15 S. McLoughlin
- 3 H. Pickering
- 8 S. Morsy
- 31 K. Montgomery
- 11 J. Fevrier
- 10 T. Cantwell
- 21 O. Afolayan
- 9 A. Guojohnsen
West Ham United
- 1 M. Hermansen
- 34 J. Veltman
- 15 K. Mavropanos
- 3 M. Kilman
- 63 E. Mayers
- 7 A. Engels
- 20 J. Bowen
- 17 M. Kanté
- 14 D. Mukasa
- 35 E. Austbö
- 9 J. Piroe
Substitutes
- 14 D. De Neve
- 30 J. Garrett
- 4 Y. Oliveira Ribeiro
- 23 Y. Ohashi
- 7 A. Kargbo
- 1 A. Pears
- 24 M. Baradji
- 16 S. Wharton
- 6 T. Atcheson
- 27 S. Magassa
- 23 A. Areola
- 30 O. Scarles
- 11 V. Castellanos Giménez
- 28 T. Souček
- 5 F. Rodrigues
- 10 M. Solomon
- 58 A. Golambeckis
- 61 L. Orford
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